ZUMZ
Zumiez Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) closed at $17.79 as of 2026-06-19, trading 9.7% below its 200-week moving average of $19.70. This places ZUMZ in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -6.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.66 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1054 weeks of data, ZUMZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ZUMZ at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.4%.
With a market cap of $300 million, ZUMZ is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 13.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 4.8%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.9% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 20.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ZUMZ would have grown to $55, compared to $824 for the S&P 500. ZUMZ has returned -2.9% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ZUMZ vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ZUMZ Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying ZUMZ when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.8% after 12 months (median +39.0%), compared to +11.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.9% vs +26.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ZUMZ crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ZUMZ would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ZUMZ's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-09-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $18.77 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $20.66 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $22.96 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $25.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $29.55 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ZUMZ's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ZUMZ has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +32.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2006 | Sep 2006 | 3 | 11.0% | +109.3% | -19.8% |
| Nov 2007 | Sep 2010 | 151 | 73.8% | -67.0% | -31.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 3 | 2.6% | +107.7% | +3.2% |
| Oct 2012 | Feb 2013 | 14 | 15.3% | +43.5% | -13.5% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 2 | 5.6% | +34.8% | -30.4% |
| Jan 2014 | May 2014 | 17 | 17.5% | +72.6% | -22.6% |
| Jul 2014 | Jul 2014 | 1 | 0.2% | -0.5% | -34.3% |
| Jun 2015 | Jan 2018 | 136 | 50.1% | -39.9% | -25.9% |
| Jan 2018 | Mar 2018 | 8 | 14.5% | +6.8% | -20.4% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | +18.9% | -20.4% |
| Jul 2018 | Jul 2018 | 3 | 6.5% | +20.7% | -14.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 1.2% | +53.0% | -16.7% |
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2019 | 9 | 13.6% | +46.4% | -15.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 0.7% | +23.2% | -10.1% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 11 | 34.5% | +137.5% | -7.2% |
| May 2022 | Oct 2025 | 179 | 55.2% | -48.6% | -43.8% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 12.2% | Ongoing | +2.3% |
| Average | 32 | — | +32.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZUMZ below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) is trading 9.7% below its 200-week moving average of $19.70. The current price is $17.79.
What is ZUMZ's 200-week moving average price?
Zumiez Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $19.70 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ZUMZ drops below its 200-week moving average?
ZUMZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is ZUMZ a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ZUMZ as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 40. Free cash flow yield is 13.8%. Return on equity is 4.8%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ZUMZ compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20.2 years, $100 invested in ZUMZ would have grown to $55, compared to $824 for the S&P 500. That's -2.9% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. ZUMZ has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19