ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Industrials - Express Delivery Investor Relations →
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) closed at $20.61 as of 2026-09-11, trading 2.9% below its 200-week moving average of $21.23. This places ZTO in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -1.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 467 weeks of data, ZTO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ZTO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.6%.
With a market cap of $15.6 billion, ZTO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 41.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 16.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.0% reduction over three years. ZTO passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ZTO would have grown to $145, compared to $340 for the S&P 500. ZTO has returned 4.2% annualized vs 14.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ZTO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ZTO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying ZTO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -3.3% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -7.7% vs +39.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ZTO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ZTO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ZTO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-18.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $20.70 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $21.60 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $22.58 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $23.65 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $24.82 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | $3.41 | $3.79 | +11.3% |
| 2026-05-19 | $3.08 | $2.95 | -4.1% |
| 2026-03-17 | $3.15 | $3.31 | +5.2% |
| 2025-11-19 | $2.51 | $3.06 | +22.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ZTO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ZTO has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +2.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 1 | 1.7% | +16.2% | +76.1% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 9.7% | +14.7% | +1.0% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 6.8% | +22.5% | -2.8% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 1.7% | +10.6% | -8.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 5.1% | +16.0% | -5.5% |
| Aug 2022 | Aug 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | -3.7% | -11.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Dec 2022 | 12 | 33.6% | +2.4% | -6.3% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 4 | 8.7% | -25.1% | -9.4% |
| May 2023 | Sep 2024 | 71 | 41.4% | -8.2% | -17.3% |
| Oct 2024 | Dec 2025 | 62 | 25.2% | -19.1% | -11.9% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 2.9% | Ongoing | -1.6% |
| Average | 14 | — | +2.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZTO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) is trading 2.9% below its 200-week moving average of $21.23. The current price is $20.61.
What is ZTO's 200-week moving average price?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $21.23 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ZTO drops below its 200-week moving average?
ZTO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is ZTO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ZTO as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 38. Free cash flow yield is 41.3%. Return on equity is 16.3%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ZTO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 9 years, $100 invested in ZTO would have grown to $145, compared to $340 for the S&P 500. That's 4.2% annualized vs 14.6% for the index. ZTO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ZTO pay a dividend?
Yes. ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 335.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11