ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Industrials - Express Delivery Investor Relations →
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) closed at $22.00 as of 2026-06-19, trading 4.1% above its 200-week moving average of $21.13. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 8.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 455 weeks of data, ZTO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ZTO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.6%.
With a market cap of $16.8 billion, ZTO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 21.0%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 14.9%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Over the past 8.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ZTO would have grown to $154, compared to $332 for the S&P 500. ZTO has returned 5.1% annualized vs 14.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ZTO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ZTO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying ZTO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -3.3% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -7.7% vs +40.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ZTO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ZTO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ZTO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-18.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.17 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $23.78 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $25.65 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $27.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $30.43 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ZTO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ZTO has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +2.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 1 | 1.7% | +16.2% | +88.0% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 9.6% | +14.7% | +7.8% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 6.8% | +22.5% | +3.7% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | +10.6% | -2.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 5.1% | +16.0% | +0.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Aug 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | -3.7% | -5.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Dec 2022 | 12 | 33.6% | +2.4% | N/A |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 4 | 8.7% | -25.1% | -3.3% |
| May 2023 | Sep 2024 | 71 | 41.4% | -8.2% | -11.7% |
| Oct 2024 | Dec 2025 | 62 | 25.2% | -19.1% | -5.9% |
| Average | 16 | — | +2.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZTO below its 200-week moving average?
No. ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) is currently 4.1% above its 200-week moving average of $21.13. It would need to fall to $21.13 to cross below the line.
What is ZTO's 200-week moving average price?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $21.13 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ZTO drops below its 200-week moving average?
ZTO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is ZTO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ZTO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. Free cash flow yield is 21.0%. Return on equity is 14.9%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ZTO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.8 years, $100 invested in ZTO would have grown to $154, compared to $332 for the S&P 500. That's 5.1% annualized vs 14.7% for the index. ZTO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ZTO pay a dividend?
Yes. ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 305.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19