ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Industrials - Express Delivery Investor Relations →
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) closed at $24.46 as of 2026-03-20, trading 14.0% above its 200-week moving average of $21.45. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 12.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 442 weeks of data, ZTO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ZTO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.6%.
With a market cap of $18.6 billion, ZTO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 53.7%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 14.2%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
Over the past 8.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ZTO would have grown to $169, compared to $288 for the S&P 500. ZTO has returned 6.4% annualized vs 13.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ZTO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ZTO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying ZTO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -3.3% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -7.7% vs +40.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ZTO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ZTO has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +2.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 1 | 1.7% | +16.2% | +105.7% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 9.6% | +14.7% | +18.0% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 6.8% | +22.5% | +13.5% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | +10.6% | +6.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 5.1% | +16.0% | +10.4% |
| Aug 2022 | Aug 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | -3.7% | +3.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Dec 2022 | 12 | 33.6% | +2.4% | +9.4% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 4 | 8.7% | -25.1% | +5.9% |
| May 2023 | Sep 2024 | 71 | 41.4% | -8.2% | -3.3% |
| Oct 2024 | Dec 2025 | 62 | 25.2% | -19.1% | +3.0% |
| Average | 16 | — | +2.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZTO below its 200-week moving average?
No. ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) is currently 14.0% above its 200-week moving average of $21.45. It would need to fall to $21.45 to cross below the line.
What is ZTO's 200-week moving average price?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $21.45 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ZTO drops below its 200-week moving average?
ZTO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is ZTO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ZTO as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 53.7%. Return on equity is 14.2%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ZTO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.5 years, $100 invested in ZTO would have grown to $169, compared to $288 for the S&P 500. That's 6.4% annualized vs 13.3% for the index. ZTO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ZTO pay a dividend?
Yes. ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 282.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20