YUM
Yum! Brands Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →
Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) closed at $151.99 as of 2026-06-19, trading 14.3% above its 200-week moving average of $132.97. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 16.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1452 weeks of data, YUM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought YUM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.0%.
With a market cap of $41.9 billion, YUM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.0%. The stock trades at -5.8x book value.
Over the past 27.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in YUM would have grown to $3391, compared to $1263 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.5% vs 9.5% for the index — confirming YUM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: YUM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After YUM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying YUM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.6% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +55.8% vs +22.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment YUM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices YUM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where YUM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $147.64 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $153.74 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $160.38 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $167.60 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $175.52 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from YUM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
YUM has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +18.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 3 | 8.5% | -41.6% | +3010.1% |
| Aug 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | 0.8% | -28.1% | +2944.6% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 1999 | 4 | 6.1% | -29.3% | +3144.6% |
| Nov 1999 | Feb 2001 | 66 | 39.3% | -11.5% | +3048.8% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 6.6% | +62.7% | +3418.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 0.7% | +45.8% | +3182.5% |
| Nov 2002 | Nov 2002 | 1 | 0.8% | +54.9% | +2756.4% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 10 | 16.2% | +30.1% | +987.3% |
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | 1 | 1.4% | +22.4% | +933.9% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 6 | 15.9% | +23.0% | +951.9% |
| Oct 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 0.1% | +27.9% | +268.6% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 1.2% | +24.4% | +270.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 5.3% | +34.6% | +277.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 5 | 28.6% | +36.2% | +117.8% |
| Average | 8 | — | +18.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YUM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) is currently 14.3% above its 200-week moving average of $132.97. It would need to fall to $132.97 to cross below the line.
What is YUM's 200-week moving average price?
Yum! Brands Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $132.97 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when YUM drops below its 200-week moving average?
YUM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is YUM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about YUM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow yield is 3.0%. Price-to-book is -5.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does YUM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.9 years, $100 invested in YUM would have grown to $3391, compared to $1263 for the S&P 500. That's 13.5% annualized vs 9.5% for the index. YUM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does YUM pay a dividend?
Yes. Yum! Brands Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 190.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19