XYL
Xylem Inc. Industrials - Water Equipment Investor Relations →
Xylem Inc. (XYL) closed at $107.56 as of 2026-09-18, trading 9.0% below its 200-week moving average of $118.25. This places XYL in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -9.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.15 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 731 weeks of data, XYL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 6 weeks. Historically, investors who bought XYL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +43.2%.
With a market cap of $25.1 billion, XYL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.7%. Return on equity stands at 9.2%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Share count has increased 35.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 14.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in XYL would have grown to $514, compared to $673 for the S&P 500. XYL has returned 12.3% annualized vs 14.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 32.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: XYL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After XYL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying XYL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +43.6% after 12 months (median +41.0%), compared to +26.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.5% vs +45.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment XYL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices XYL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where XYL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $102.44 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $107.41 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $112.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $118.95 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $125.70 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.34 | $1.46 | +9.2% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.08 | $1.12 | +3.3% |
| 2026-02-10 | $1.41 | $1.42 | +0.8% |
| 2025-10-28 | $1.23 | $1.37 | +11.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from XYL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
XYL has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +43.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2012 | Nov 2012 | 8 | 6.4% | +13.2% | +414.4% |
| Jul 2013 | Sep 2013 | 5 | 6.1% | +40.6% | +405.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 7.9% | +75.9% | +94.4% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 3 | 11.8% | +91.9% | +84.8% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 4.7% | +86.3% | +80.8% |
| Feb 2022 | Jul 2022 | 21 | 16.6% | +23.5% | +33.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 2.9% | +5.5% | +29.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 8 | 8.1% | +34.6% | +17.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 4.7% | +17.3% | +4.9% |
| Apr 2026 | Jun 2026 | 9 | 7.7% | N/A | -6.0% |
| Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | 1 | 1.0% | N/A | -7.7% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 10.6% | Ongoing | -4.8% |
| Average | 6 | — | +43.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XYL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Xylem Inc. (XYL) is trading 9.0% below its 200-week moving average of $118.25. The current price is $107.56.
What is XYL's 200-week moving average price?
Xylem Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $118.25 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when XYL drops below its 200-week moving average?
XYL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +43.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 6 weeks on average.
Is XYL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about XYL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 4.7%. Return on equity is 9.2%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does XYL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 14.1 years, $100 invested in XYL would have grown to $514, compared to $673 for the S&P 500. That's 12.3% annualized vs 14.5% for the index. XYL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does XYL pay a dividend?
Yes. Xylem Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 160.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18