XPO
XPO, Inc. Industrials - LTL Trucking Investor Relations →
XPO, Inc. (XPO) closed at $181.85 as of 2026-03-20, trading 93.4% above its 200-week moving average of $94.04. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 94.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1123 weeks of data, XPO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought XPO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.5%.
With a market cap of $21.3 billion, XPO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.2%. Return on equity stands at 18.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 11.4x book value.
Share count has increased 2.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 21.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in XPO would have grown to $12887, compared to $868 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 25.2% vs 10.5% for the index — confirming XPO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 1.9% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: XPO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After XPO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying XPO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +62.0% after 12 months (median +38.0%), compared to +12.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +154.7% vs +30.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment XPO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
XPO has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +57.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2004 | Jun 2006 | 93 | 64.7% | -47.0% | +11135.0% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 10 | 4.1% | +18.3% | +11330.4% |
| Oct 2006 | Dec 2006 | 5 | 1.7% | +8.5% | +11135.0% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 0.4% | +1.7% | +10763.6% |
| Nov 2007 | Jan 2008 | 11 | 10.5% | -10.8% | +10854.2% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 2.2% | -25.2% | +12185.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 11 | 18.5% | +2.9% | +12787.3% |
| Jan 2009 | Nov 2009 | 46 | 37.8% | +31.6% | +13313.3% |
| Sep 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 8.1% | +49.9% | +2130.8% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 2.3% | +74.1% | +1915.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 9 | 20.6% | +87.9% | +2161.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 6.4% | +105.7% | +1884.2% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 12.6% | +128.0% | +1848.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 9.8% | +61.6% | +920.0% |
| Feb 2019 | Apr 2019 | 8 | 20.1% | +62.0% | +813.6% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 9 | 11.0% | +10.3% | +802.0% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 11 | 40.1% | +77.8% | +699.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 14 | 17.0% | +32.9% | +449.2% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 10 | 22.5% | +116.6% | +470.7% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 1.6% | +163.1% | +446.3% |
| Feb 2023 | Apr 2023 | 8 | 13.8% | +256.7% | +432.2% |
| Average | 12 | — | +57.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XPO below its 200-week moving average?
No. XPO, Inc. (XPO) is currently 93.4% above its 200-week moving average of $94.04. It would need to fall to $94.04 to cross below the line.
What is XPO's 200-week moving average price?
XPO, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $94.04 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when XPO drops below its 200-week moving average?
XPO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +57.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is XPO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about XPO as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Free cash flow yield is 1.2%. Return on equity is 18.3%. Price-to-book is 11.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does XPO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.6 years, $100 invested in XPO would have grown to $12887, compared to $868 for the S&P 500. That's 25.2% annualized vs 10.5% for the index. XPO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20