XP

XP Inc. Financial Services Investor Relations →

NO
13.8% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 13.8% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Signal Threshold $17.46
14-Week RSI 76
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 2.0x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.01

XP Inc. (XP) closed at $19.86 as of 2026-09-11, trading 13.8% above its 200-week moving average of $17.46. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 13.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, XP is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 304 weeks of data, XP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 48 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -27.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.

With a market cap of $10.1 billion, XP is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 22.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.

Over the past 5.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in XP would have grown to $59, compared to $228 for the S&P 500. XP has returned -8.6% annualized vs 15.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 90.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: XP vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After XP Crosses Below the Line?

Across 5 historical episodes, buying XP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -30.7% after 12 months (median -28.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -54.7% vs +1.7% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment XP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from XP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -1.04σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -1.49σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative +0.29σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -2.1pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History N/A Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Improving Accrual gap trend (-41.8pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Historical Touches

XP has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +-27.5% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Dec 2020Dec 202014.5%-15.8%-36.9%
Mar 2021Mar 202112.4%-14.6%-40.0%
Oct 2021Nov 202521266.2%-52.1%-38.5%
Nov 2025Jan 2026911.2%N/A+17.0%
May 2026Aug 20261513.3%N/A+15.2%
Average48+-27.5%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is XP below its 200-week moving average?

No. XP Inc. (XP) is currently 13.8% above its 200-week moving average of $17.46. It would need to fall to $17.46 to cross below the line.

What is XP's 200-week moving average price?

XP Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $17.46 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when XP drops below its 200-week moving average?

XP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -27.5%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 48 weeks on average.

Is XP a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about XP as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Return on equity is 22.6%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does XP compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 5.9 years, $100 invested in XP would have grown to $59, compared to $228 for the S&P 500. That's -8.6% annualized vs 15.0% for the index. XP has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does XP pay a dividend?

Yes. XP Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 100.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-09-11