XP
XP Inc. Financial Services Investor Relations →
XP Inc. (XP) closed at $16.02 as of 2026-06-12, trading 8.2% below its 200-week moving average of $17.45. This places XP in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -13.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 291 weeks of data, XP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -27.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $8.3 billion, XP is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 22.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Over the past 5.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in XP would have grown to $47, compared to $221 for the S&P 500. XP has returned -12.4% annualized vs 15.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 90.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: XP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After XP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying XP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -30.7% after 12 months (median -28.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -54.7% vs +1.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment XP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from XP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
XP has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-27.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 4.5% | -15.8% | -49.1% |
| Mar 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 2.4% | -14.6% | -51.6% |
| Oct 2021 | Sep 2025 | 204 | 66.2% | -52.1% | -50.4% |
| Sep 2025 | Nov 2025 | 6 | 15.4% | N/A | -12.7% |
| Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | 9 | 11.2% | N/A | -5.6% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 13.2% | Ongoing | -7.1% |
| Average | 38 | — | +-27.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XP below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-12, XP Inc. (XP) is trading 8.2% below its 200-week moving average of $17.45. The current price is $16.02.
What is XP's 200-week moving average price?
XP Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $17.45 as of 2026-06-12. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when XP drops below its 200-week moving average?
XP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -27.5%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is XP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about XP as of 2026-06-12: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 39. Return on equity is 22.9%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does XP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 5.7 years, $100 invested in XP would have grown to $47, compared to $221 for the S&P 500. That's -12.4% annualized vs 15.0% for the index. XP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does XP pay a dividend?
Yes. XP Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 125.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-12