XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) closed at $137.81 as of 2026-06-19, trading 27.4% above its 200-week moving average of $108.15. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 36.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3315 weeks of data, XOM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought XOM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.5%.
With a market cap of $571.2 billion, XOM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.0%. Return on equity stands at 9.9%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
XOM is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 290.00%. Share count has increased 2.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in XOM would have grown to $2652, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. XOM has returned 10.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -26.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: XOM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After XOM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying XOM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.3% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +13.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.2% vs +30.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment XOM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices XOM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where XOM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-31.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $127.20 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $150.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $185.18 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $239.83 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $340.24 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from XOM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
XOM has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +11.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1966 | Jul 1966 | 3 | 3.6% | -5.8% | +94746.6% |
| Jul 1966 | Mar 1968 | 88 | 14.5% | -3.5% | +94575.9% |
| May 1968 | Jun 1968 | 2 | 0.7% | +29.7% | +90844.9% |
| Jun 1968 | Jun 1968 | 1 | 0.3% | +22.8% | +90675.5% |
| Nov 1969 | Aug 1970 | 41 | 19.3% | +10.6% | +87703.3% |
| May 1974 | Jun 1974 | 3 | 1.0% | +24.0% | +62352.0% |
| Jun 1974 | Jul 1974 | 5 | 4.8% | +40.4% | +64007.1% |
| Aug 1974 | Jan 1975 | 24 | 23.9% | +32.1% | +62638.9% |
| Mar 1975 | Apr 1975 | 1 | 0.9% | +42.5% | +60534.6% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 1 | 1.9% | +60.6% | +24096.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 3.6% | -6.0% | +752.2% |
| Nov 2001 | Dec 2001 | 3 | 2.1% | -4.6% | +711.7% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2003 | 59 | 15.7% | +0.1% | +721.3% |
| Sep 2003 | Sep 2003 | 2 | 1.7% | +34.2% | +684.2% |
| Oct 2003 | Dec 2003 | 6 | 4.9% | +38.0% | +693.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 10.6% | +13.6% | +320.7% |
| Feb 2009 | Jun 2009 | 15 | 10.3% | -5.2% | +264.4% |
| Jun 2009 | Oct 2009 | 17 | 9.9% | -8.9% | +263.1% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 3 | 1.9% | -4.8% | +257.8% |
| Dec 2009 | Dec 2010 | 52 | 22.7% | +1.8% | +250.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 2.2% | +29.8% | +249.5% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 3 | 2.6% | +29.8% | +243.5% |
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2015 | 4 | 1.5% | +1.5% | +164.9% |
| Jun 2015 | Mar 2016 | 41 | 15.0% | +8.6% | +161.5% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 2 | 1.3% | +2.4% | +158.6% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 0.5% | -0.6% | +152.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 0.6% | +3.3% | +152.4% |
| Jan 2017 | Oct 2017 | 36 | 6.4% | +5.0% | +150.2% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 0.7% | +2.5% | +151.0% |
| Feb 2018 | May 2018 | 13 | 8.5% | +1.7% | +165.8% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | -3.7% | +156.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 9 | 11.0% | -4.0% | +155.9% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 5.9% | -36.2% | +155.2% |
| Jul 2019 | Mar 2021 | 85 | 54.5% | -38.5% | +152.1% |
| Mar 2021 | May 2021 | 7 | 6.0% | +47.0% | +197.5% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 10 | 7.4% | +55.0% | +188.9% |
| Average | 15 | — | +11.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XOM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is currently 27.4% above its 200-week moving average of $108.15. It would need to fall to $108.15 to cross below the line.
What is XOM's 200-week moving average price?
Exxon Mobil Corporation's 200-week moving average is $108.15 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when XOM drops below its 200-week moving average?
XOM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is XOM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about XOM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 41. Free cash flow yield is 2.0%. Return on equity is 9.9%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does XOM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in XOM would have grown to $2652, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 10.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. XOM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does XOM pay a dividend?
Yes. Exxon Mobil Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 290.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19