XEL
Xcel Energy Inc. Utilities - Electric Investor Relations →
Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) closed at $78.20 as of 2026-07-31, trading 23.1% above its 200-week moving average of $63.53. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2740 weeks of data, XEL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought XEL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.9%.
With a market cap of $48.8 billion, XEL is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 9.6%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
Share count has increased 13.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in XEL would have grown to $1563, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. XEL has returned 8.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: XEL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After XEL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying XEL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.7% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +8.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +20.5% vs +18.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment XEL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. XEL currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from XEL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
XEL has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +3.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Jun 1975 | 70 | 36.3% | -15.9% | +8685.5% |
| Aug 1975 | Aug 1975 | 2 | 6.6% | +19.0% | +9497.2% |
| Mar 1978 | May 1978 | 8 | 3.8% | N/A | +8863.8% |
| Jul 1978 | Jul 1978 | 1 | 1.0% | -4.0% | +8642.0% |
| Sep 1978 | Jun 1981 | 140 | 30.0% | -5.0% | +8729.4% |
| Sep 1981 | Oct 1981 | 4 | 3.7% | +29.3% | +9293.0% |
| Aug 1990 | Sep 1990 | 4 | 3.8% | +38.8% | +2693.4% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 3 | 4.3% | +5.2% | +955.6% |
| Sep 1999 | May 2000 | 33 | 25.3% | +26.1% | +941.2% |
| May 2000 | Jul 2000 | 7 | 8.5% | +47.6% | +950.9% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 1 | 0.1% | -50.1% | +792.2% |
| May 2002 | Sep 2004 | 124 | 68.3% | -24.1% | +884.6% |
| Oct 2004 | Oct 2004 | 1 | 0.5% | +12.7% | +925.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 40 | 11.7% | +21.6% | +774.9% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 5.2% | -1.1% | +48.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.7% | -16.5% | +39.2% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 6 | 2.3% | -8.9% | +38.3% |
| Jul 2023 | Aug 2024 | 57 | 21.2% | -5.2% | +37.7% |
| Average | 28 | — | +3.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XEL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) is currently 23.1% above its 200-week moving average of $63.53. It would need to fall to $63.53 to cross below the line.
What is XEL's 200-week moving average price?
Xcel Energy Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $63.53 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when XEL drops below its 200-week moving average?
XEL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +3.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is XEL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about XEL as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 9.6%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does XEL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in XEL would have grown to $1563, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 8.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. XEL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does XEL pay a dividend?
Yes. Xcel Energy Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 301.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31