WU
The Western Union Company Financial Services - Money Transfer Investor Relations →
The Western Union Company (WU) closed at $6.36 as of 2026-07-31, trading 29.9% below its 200-week moving average of $9.08. This places WU in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -9.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 3.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 986 weeks of data, WU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WU at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.7%.
With a market cap of $1984 million, WU is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 28.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 44.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.5% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 18.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WU would have grown to $65, compared to $691 for the S&P 500. WU has returned -2.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $1,733,894. Notably, these purchases occurred while WU is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 1.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WU vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WU Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying WU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.6% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +8.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +8.4% vs +23.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WU would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WU's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $7.26 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $7.77 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $8.35 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $9.03 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $9.83 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WU has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +11.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 6 | 13.6% | +26.9% | -32.1% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 4.8% | -29.4% | -36.1% |
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 10 | 5.5% | -41.0% | -36.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2011 | 118 | 49.8% | -14.2% | -35.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Dec 2011 | 20 | 17.3% | -1.2% | -25.6% |
| Feb 2012 | Feb 2012 | 1 | 1.4% | -14.4% | -25.3% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 2 | 2.8% | -15.3% | -24.0% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 11 | 7.7% | -3.8% | -23.7% |
| Oct 2012 | Jun 2013 | 32 | 29.6% | +51.1% | +8.1% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 1 | 0.2% | +7.1% | -24.2% |
| Jan 2014 | Feb 2014 | 5 | 6.3% | +15.2% | -21.1% |
| Mar 2014 | Jun 2014 | 14 | 6.8% | +26.2% | -22.6% |
| Sep 2014 | Oct 2014 | 3 | 3.7% | +17.8% | -25.3% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 5 | 3.9% | +33.5% | -41.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Mar 2019 | 14 | 7.7% | +54.0% | -41.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 6.9% | +38.4% | -45.5% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 5 | 3.1% | +48.0% | -45.9% |
| Oct 2021 | Ongoing | 250+ | 40.4% | Ongoing | -51.8% |
| Average | 28 | — | +11.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WU below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, The Western Union Company (WU) is trading 29.9% below its 200-week moving average of $9.08. The current price is $6.36.
What is WU's 200-week moving average price?
The Western Union Company's 200-week moving average is $9.08 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WU drops below its 200-week moving average?
WU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is WU a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WU as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 28.3%. Return on equity is 44.0%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WU compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.9 years, $100 invested in WU would have grown to $65, compared to $691 for the S&P 500. That's -2.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. WU has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WU pay a dividend?
Yes. The Western Union Company currently pays a dividend yield of 1478.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31