WTM
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM) closed at $2097.73 as of 2026-07-31, trading 20.3% above its 200-week moving average of $1744.00. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 26.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2079 weeks of data, WTM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WTM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.5%.
With a market cap of $5.2 billion, WTM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.7%. Return on equity stands at 19.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.6% reduction over three years. WTM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WTM would have grown to $3295, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming WTM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 14.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WTM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WTM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying WTM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.4% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +18.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.5% vs +31.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WTM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WTM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WTM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $2013.44 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $2104.25 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $2203.64 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $2312.88 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $2433.52 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WTM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WTM has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +15.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 1 | 1.9% | +4.6% | +7275.3% |
| Nov 1986 | Jan 1987 | 12 | 5.9% | -14.1% | +7146.8% |
| Apr 1987 | May 1987 | 6 | 3.9% | -19.1% | +7345.9% |
| Jun 1987 | Aug 1987 | 6 | 3.0% | -7.7% | +7091.3% |
| Sep 1987 | Sep 1987 | 3 | 2.5% | -5.5% | +7199.9% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1989 | 71 | 31.8% | -1.5% | +7787.3% |
| May 1989 | May 1989 | 1 | 0.4% | -2.4% | +7588.7% |
| Jan 1990 | May 1990 | 19 | 7.2% | +61.8% | +7517.7% |
| Mar 1994 | Jun 1994 | 13 | 11.3% | +8.2% | +3489.6% |
| Oct 1994 | Nov 1994 | 2 | 0.1% | -1.4% | +3275.5% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 2 | 0.2% | -3.3% | +3252.0% |
| Jan 1995 | Feb 1995 | 2 | 0.7% | +6.9% | +3240.4% |
| Mar 1995 | Sep 1995 | 24 | 5.9% | +4.3% | +3217.3% |
| Sep 1995 | Dec 1995 | 13 | 9.2% | +23.7% | +3194.6% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 8 | 8.5% | +164.1% | +1917.5% |
| Jun 2006 | Aug 2006 | 8 | 6.3% | +25.3% | +358.5% |
| Sep 2006 | Oct 2006 | 1 | 0.2% | +6.1% | +346.4% |
| Jul 2007 | Oct 2007 | 9 | 4.5% | -16.1% | +310.0% |
| Oct 2007 | Feb 2011 | 175 | 67.0% | -35.9% | +314.2% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 2 | 1.2% | +37.6% | +488.6% |
| Apr 2011 | May 2011 | 3 | 2.3% | +48.7% | +496.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | 22.9% | +41.2% | +151.9% |
| Apr 2020 | Nov 2020 | 31 | 17.7% | +31.5% | +137.8% |
| Average | 18 | — | +15.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WTM below its 200-week moving average?
No. White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM) is currently 20.3% above its 200-week moving average of $1744.00. It would need to fall to $1744.00 to cross below the line.
What is WTM's 200-week moving average price?
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $1744.00 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WTM drops below its 200-week moving average?
WTM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is WTM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WTM as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 36. Free cash flow yield is 4.7%. Return on equity is 19.7%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WTM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in WTM would have grown to $3295, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. WTM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WTM pay a dividend?
Yes. White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. currently pays a dividend yield of 5.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31