WTFC
Wintrust Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) closed at $147.52 as of 2026-09-18, trading 35.3% above its 200-week moving average of $109.02. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 40.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1435 weeks of data, WTFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WTFC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.5%.
With a market cap of $10.0 billion, WTFC is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 12.2%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 10.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 27.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WTFC would have grown to $1644, compared to $957 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.7% vs 8.5% for the index — confirming WTFC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -13.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WTFC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WTFC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying WTFC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.8% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +15.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.4% vs +29.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WTFC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WTFC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WTFC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-19.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $145.50 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $155.83 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $167.75 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $181.65 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $198.05 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | $3.15 | $3.28 | +4.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | $2.95 | $3.22 | +9.2% |
| 2026-01-20 | $2.93 | $3.15 | +7.5% |
| 2025-10-20 | $2.71 | $3.06 | +12.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WTFC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WTFC has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +9.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1999 | May 1999 | 7 | 6.2% | -18.6% | +1509.9% |
| May 1999 | Jan 2001 | 85 | 25.8% | -18.4% | +1461.2% |
| Nov 2006 | Dec 2006 | 4 | 1.7% | -24.6% | +295.5% |
| Jan 2007 | Jan 2010 | 157 | 74.8% | -35.5% | +299.3% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 6.3% | +7.2% | +476.3% |
| Jul 2010 | Sep 2010 | 8 | 9.3% | +10.4% | +476.8% |
| Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 2.0% | -4.2% | +484.8% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 4.1% | -6.2% | +499.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 2.5% | +32.4% | +540.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 3 | 8.4% | +43.5% | +568.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 8.1% | +28.2% | +539.4% |
| Dec 2011 | Dec 2011 | 1 | 2.0% | +31.3% | +550.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 5 | 6.7% | +75.6% | +325.6% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | +60.4% | +303.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.2% | +12.4% | +160.8% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 3.8% | -51.7% | +161.3% |
| Jul 2019 | Dec 2019 | 22 | 9.9% | -36.3% | +150.8% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2021 | 57 | 56.7% | -3.5% | +141.8% |
| Apr 2023 | Jun 2023 | 6 | 12.5% | +47.9% | +129.2% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 1.5% | +39.3% | +126.4% |
| Average | 18 | — | +9.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WTFC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) is currently 35.3% above its 200-week moving average of $109.02. It would need to fall to $109.02 to cross below the line.
What is WTFC's 200-week moving average price?
Wintrust Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $109.02 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WTFC drops below its 200-week moving average?
WTFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is WTFC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WTFC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 37. Return on equity is 12.2%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WTFC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.6 years, $100 invested in WTFC would have grown to $1644, compared to $957 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. WTFC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WTFC pay a dividend?
Yes. Wintrust Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 149.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18