WSM
Williams-Sonoma Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Home Furnishings Investor Relations →
Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM) closed at $226.92 as of 2026-06-19, trading 74.6% above its 200-week moving average of $129.96. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 73.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 70, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2193 weeks of data, WSM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WSM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.1%.
With a market cap of $26.7 billion, WSM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Return on equity stands at 54.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 12.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WSM would have grown to $48834, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming WSM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WSM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WSM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying WSM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +59.1% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +7.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +72.7% vs +10.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WSM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WSM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WSM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-04-30).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $151.04 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $162.36 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $175.52 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $191.01 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $209.48 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WSM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WSM has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +37.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1984 | May 1985 | 49 | 50.5% | +29.2% | +164714.3% |
| Jul 1985 | Jul 1985 | 1 | 1.0% | +75.0% | +132250.9% |
| Sep 1985 | Nov 1985 | 9 | 4.0% | +105.7% | +132250.9% |
| Dec 1987 | Dec 1987 | 1 | 0.4% | +39.7% | +100304.0% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 2 | 11.2% | -25.0% | +40340.5% |
| Oct 1991 | Dec 1991 | 9 | 17.2% | -21.9% | +40340.5% |
| Jan 1992 | Aug 1993 | 81 | 43.3% | -12.9% | +41645.1% |
| Jan 1996 | Feb 1996 | 7 | 12.6% | +136.2% | +19732.9% |
| Mar 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 13.3% | +25.1% | +6255.3% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 3.1% | +31.3% | +5300.5% |
| Oct 2000 | May 2001 | 32 | 43.6% | -1.5% | +5250.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 9 | 28.2% | +72.2% | +4686.6% |
| Jul 2006 | Jan 2007 | 27 | 15.3% | -3.4% | +2037.8% |
| Jan 2007 | Jan 2007 | 1 | 0.8% | -31.5% | +1982.4% |
| Feb 2007 | Mar 2007 | 4 | 3.7% | -29.1% | +2025.3% |
| Apr 2007 | Mar 2010 | 148 | 84.3% | -19.5% | +1959.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 14 | 13.3% | -8.1% | +964.5% |
| Apr 2016 | Jun 2018 | 110 | 25.8% | -5.4% | +883.2% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 13 | 14.4% | +39.7% | +890.0% |
| May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | 0.2% | +31.5% | +905.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 31.5% | +204.7% | +1029.4% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 3 | 1.5% | +183.2% | +319.2% |
| Average | 24 | — | +37.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WSM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM) is currently 74.6% above its 200-week moving average of $129.96. It would need to fall to $129.96 to cross below the line.
What is WSM's 200-week moving average price?
Williams-Sonoma Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $129.96 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WSM drops below its 200-week moving average?
WSM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +37.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is WSM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WSM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 70. Free cash flow yield is 3.3%. Return on equity is 54.0%. Price-to-book is 12.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WSM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in WSM would have grown to $48834, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 20.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. WSM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19