WRBY

Warby Parker Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Eyewear Investor Relations →

NO
46.8% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 50.1% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $17.68
14-Week RSI 53
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 2.2x — Surging
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.85

Warby Parker Inc. (WRBY) closed at $25.96 as of 2026-06-19, trading 46.8% above its 200-week moving average of $17.68. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 50.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.

A big spike in selling this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.

Over the past 198 weeks of data, WRBY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 41 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -2.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.

With a market cap of $3.2 billion, WRBY is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 0.4%. The stock trades at 8.5x book value.

Share count has increased 6.2% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 3.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WRBY would have grown to $195, compared to $221 for the S&P 500. WRBY has returned 19.0% annualized vs 22.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: WRBY vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After WRBY Crosses Below the Line?

Across 3 historical episodes, buying WRBY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.0% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +20.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.0% vs +66.0% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WRBY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WRBY would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -0.00σ
Current FCF Yield 1.60%
Baseline Yield 1.79%
Historical σ 0.19pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where WRBY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$18.35Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$20.30Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$22.72Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$25.80Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$29.83Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from WRBY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation N/A Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -1.59σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -0.7pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +1.0pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+4.4pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

WRBY has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +-2.6% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Sep 2022Nov 202411361.0%-25.4%+62.7%
Mar 2025May 2025926.2%+20.1%+37.4%
Nov 2025Nov 202522.1%N/A+50.8%
Average41+-2.6%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is WRBY below its 200-week moving average?

No. Warby Parker Inc. (WRBY) is currently 46.8% above its 200-week moving average of $17.68. It would need to fall to $17.68 to cross below the line.

What is WRBY's 200-week moving average price?

Warby Parker Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $17.68 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when WRBY drops below its 200-week moving average?

WRBY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -2.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 41 weeks on average.

Is WRBY a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about WRBY as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 1.0%. Return on equity is 0.4%. Price-to-book is 8.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does WRBY compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 3.8 years, $100 invested in WRBY would have grown to $195, compared to $221 for the S&P 500. That's 19.0% annualized vs 22.9% for the index. WRBY has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19