WMT
Walmart Inc. Consumer Staples - Retail Investor Relations →
Walmart Inc. (WMT) closed at $131.18 as of 2026-02-02, trading 91.9% above its 200-week moving average of $68.35. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 75.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 84, WMT is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2741 weeks of data, WMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.9%.
With a market cap of $1.0 trillion, WMT is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 23.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.9x book value.
WMT is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 72.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.1% reduction over three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WMT would have grown to $3961, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.7% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming WMT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: WMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying WMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.0% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.5% vs +34.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
WMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +14.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1973 | May 1975 | 94 | 58.4% | -11.6% | +1697102.8% |
| May 1994 | Jul 1994 | 9 | 5.0% | +6.0% | +5241.8% |
| Aug 1994 | Jun 1995 | 45 | 17.8% | +5.4% | +5123.5% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 1 | 0.5% | -7.4% | +4785.5% |
| Jul 1995 | May 1996 | 43 | 23.1% | -3.6% | +4857.0% |
| Jun 1996 | Aug 1996 | 7 | 5.8% | +29.9% | +4864.7% |
| Nov 1996 | Nov 1996 | 1 | 1.9% | +62.6% | +5032.1% |
| Dec 1996 | Feb 1997 | 11 | 8.3% | +68.7% | +5166.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 4 | 9.2% | +23.3% | +1209.4% |
| Sep 2002 | Sep 2002 | 1 | 0.4% | +11.4% | +1086.6% |
| Dec 2002 | Mar 2003 | 14 | 10.5% | +4.5% | +1103.1% |
| May 2003 | Jun 2003 | 2 | 1.5% | +6.7% | +1065.5% |
| Dec 2003 | Jan 2004 | 5 | 1.2% | +1.3% | +1050.7% |
| Jun 2004 | Aug 2004 | 7 | 3.3% | -8.8% | +1043.2% |
| Sep 2004 | Oct 2004 | 6 | 2.5% | -15.4% | +1041.2% |
| Nov 2004 | Jan 2005 | 5 | 2.7% | -8.3% | +1031.5% |
| Jan 2005 | May 2007 | 123 | 18.1% | -14.1% | +1027.0% |
| Jun 2007 | Nov 2007 | 23 | 11.9% | +19.8% | +1104.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Dec 2007 | 1 | 0.2% | +16.7% | +1103.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 3.5% | +27.2% | +1148.1% |
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | 3 | 2.4% | +15.9% | +1090.2% |
| Jul 2009 | Jul 2009 | 1 | 0.1% | +6.2% | +1066.0% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 2 | 1.8% | +10.1% | +1012.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 1.3% | +52.1% | +963.9% |
| Aug 2015 | May 2016 | 40 | 20.0% | +12.7% | +615.6% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 7 | 2.5% | +18.2% | +572.7% |
| Dec 2016 | Feb 2017 | 11 | 6.1% | +41.6% | +559.4% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 1.4% | +27.8% | +245.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.8% | +33.6% | +247.9% |
| Average | 16 | — | +14.9% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02