WMT

Walmart Inc. Consumer Staples - Retail Investor Relations →

NO
91.9% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 75.3% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $68.35
14-Week RSI 84

Walmart Inc. (WMT) closed at $131.18 as of 2026-02-02, trading 91.9% above its 200-week moving average of $68.35. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 75.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 84, WMT is in overbought territory.

Over the past 2741 weeks of data, WMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.9%.

With a market cap of $1.0 trillion, WMT is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 23.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.9x book value.

WMT is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 72.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.1% reduction over three years.

Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WMT would have grown to $3961, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.7% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming WMT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Growth of $100: WMT vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After WMT Crosses Below the Line?

Across 28 historical episodes, buying WMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.0% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.5% vs +34.1% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

WMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +14.9% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jul 1973May 19759458.4%-11.6%+1697102.8%
May 1994Jul 199495.0%+6.0%+5241.8%
Aug 1994Jun 19954517.8%+5.4%+5123.5%
Jul 1995Jul 199510.5%-7.4%+4785.5%
Jul 1995May 19964323.1%-3.6%+4857.0%
Jun 1996Aug 199675.8%+29.9%+4864.7%
Nov 1996Nov 199611.9%+62.6%+5032.1%
Dec 1996Feb 1997118.3%+68.7%+5166.4%
Jul 2002Aug 200249.2%+23.3%+1209.4%
Sep 2002Sep 200210.4%+11.4%+1086.6%
Dec 2002Mar 20031410.5%+4.5%+1103.1%
May 2003Jun 200321.5%+6.7%+1065.5%
Dec 2003Jan 200451.2%+1.3%+1050.7%
Jun 2004Aug 200473.3%-8.8%+1043.2%
Sep 2004Oct 200462.5%-15.4%+1041.2%
Nov 2004Jan 200552.7%-8.3%+1031.5%
Jan 2005May 200712318.1%-14.1%+1027.0%
Jun 2007Nov 20072311.9%+19.8%+1104.4%
Dec 2007Dec 200710.2%+16.7%+1103.4%
Dec 2007Jan 200813.5%+27.2%+1148.1%
Jan 2009Feb 200932.4%+15.9%+1090.2%
Jul 2009Jul 200910.1%+6.2%+1066.0%
Jun 2010Jul 201021.8%+10.1%+1012.0%
Aug 2011Aug 201111.3%+52.1%+963.9%
Aug 2015May 20164020.0%+12.7%+615.6%
Oct 2016Nov 201672.5%+18.2%+572.7%
Dec 2016Feb 2017116.1%+41.6%+559.4%
May 2022May 202211.4%+27.8%+245.2%
Jun 2022Jun 202212.8%+33.6%+247.9%
Average16+14.9%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02