WMG
Warner Music Group Corp. Communication Services - Music Investor Relations →
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) closed at $28.17 as of 2026-06-19, trading 4.4% below its 200-week moving average of $29.46. This places WMG in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.18 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 267 weeks of data, WMG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -0.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $14.7 billion, WMG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at 51.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 19.9x book value.
Over the past 5.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WMG would have grown to $89, compared to $191 for the S&P 500. WMG has returned -2.3% annualized vs 13.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $3,002,843. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while WMG is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WMG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WMG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying WMG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.3% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +5.2% vs +47.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WMG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WMG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WMG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $17.54 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $20.63 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $25.04 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $31.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $43.71 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WMG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WMG has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +-0.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 9.9% | -1.6% | -6.1% |
| Apr 2022 | Nov 2022 | 32 | 31.9% | +1.5% | -1.0% |
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 1.3% | +11.5% | -6.4% |
| Feb 2023 | Aug 2023 | 24 | 24.8% | +8.6% | -5.7% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 4.1% | +1.4% | -2.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 3.7% | +4.9% | -5.0% |
| Nov 2023 | Nov 2023 | 1 | 0.6% | +5.8% | -5.7% |
| May 2024 | Oct 2024 | 23 | 13.7% | -11.6% | -6.1% |
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 0.5% | -1.4% | -7.8% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 6 | 7.7% | -3.5% | -6.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Jul 2025 | 16 | 16.5% | -22.7% | -7.9% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 7.1% | N/A | +0.8% |
| Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | 4 | 6.3% | N/A | +1.0% |
| Feb 2026 | May 2026 | 13 | 19.0% | N/A | -1.9% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 4.4% | Ongoing | -1.0% |
| Average | 9 | — | +-0.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) is trading 4.4% below its 200-week moving average of $29.46. The current price is $28.17.
What is WMG's 200-week moving average price?
Warner Music Group Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $29.46 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WMG drops below its 200-week moving average?
WMG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -0.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is WMG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WMG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Return on equity is 51.0%. Price-to-book is 19.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WMG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 5.2 years, $100 invested in WMG would have grown to $89, compared to $191 for the S&P 500. That's -2.3% annualized vs 13.3% for the index. WMG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WMG pay a dividend?
Yes. Warner Music Group Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 264.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19