WMG
Warner Music Group Corp. Communication Services - Music Investor Relations →
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) closed at $23.89 as of 2026-03-20, trading 18.6% below its 200-week moving average of $29.35. This places WMG in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -7.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 254 weeks of data, WMG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WMG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.6%.
With a market cap of $12.5 billion, WMG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 39.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 17.3x book value.
Over the past 4.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WMG would have grown to $75, compared to $165 for the S&P 500. WMG has returned -5.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $3,002,843. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while WMG is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WMG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WMG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying WMG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -2.0% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +4.6% vs +47.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WMG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
WMG has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +1.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 9.9% | -1.6% | -20.8% |
| Apr 2022 | Nov 2022 | 32 | 31.9% | +1.5% | -16.5% |
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 1.3% | +11.5% | -21.0% |
| Feb 2023 | Aug 2023 | 24 | 24.8% | +8.6% | -20.5% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 4.1% | +1.4% | -17.5% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 3.7% | +4.9% | -19.8% |
| Nov 2023 | Nov 2023 | 1 | 0.6% | +5.8% | -20.4% |
| May 2024 | Oct 2024 | 23 | 13.7% | -11.6% | -20.8% |
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 0.5% | -1.4% | -22.2% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 6 | 7.7% | -3.5% | -20.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Jul 2025 | 16 | 16.5% | N/A | -22.3% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 7.1% | N/A | -15.0% |
| Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | 4 | 6.3% | N/A | -14.9% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 7+ | 18.6% | Ongoing | -17.2% |
| Average | 9 | — | +1.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) is trading 18.6% below its 200-week moving average of $29.35. The current price is $23.89.
What is WMG's 200-week moving average price?
Warner Music Group Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $29.35 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WMG drops below its 200-week moving average?
WMG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +1.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is WMG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WMG as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 5.9%. Return on equity is 39.8%. Price-to-book is 17.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WMG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.9 years, $100 invested in WMG would have grown to $75, compared to $165 for the S&P 500. That's -5.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. WMG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WMG pay a dividend?
Yes. Warner Music Group Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 318.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20