WM
Waste Management, Inc. Industrials - Waste Management Investor Relations →
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) closed at $211.10 as of 2026-09-18, trading 7.7% above its 200-week moving average of $196.11. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 9.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1947 weeks of data, WM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 35 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.8%.
With a market cap of $84.4 billion, WM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.8%. Return on equity stands at 29.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.5x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WM would have grown to $2844, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. WM has returned 10.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying WM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.6% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +11.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +67.2% vs +35.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-26.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $206.27 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $213.18 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $220.57 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $228.49 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $237.00 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.98 | $2.02 | +2.1% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.74 | $1.81 | +4.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | $1.95 | $1.93 | -0.9% |
| 2025-10-27 | $2.01 | $1.98 | -1.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WM has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +15.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1989 | Jun 1990 | 53 | 43.9% | -11.1% | +16964.3% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 4 | 2.7% | +34.9% | +3600.7% |
| May 1994 | Jul 1994 | 12 | 10.9% | +28.7% | +3167.6% |
| Nov 1994 | Apr 1995 | 19 | 21.2% | +80.6% | +3202.8% |
| Jul 1999 | May 2003 | 201 | 63.1% | -41.0% | +1078.6% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 3.6% | +12.3% | +1010.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 12 | 19.7% | +15.9% | +1207.6% |
| Jan 2009 | Nov 2009 | 41 | 26.9% | +6.7% | +940.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 6 | 5.4% | +19.5% | +897.9% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 2.1% | +11.4% | +889.5% |
| Average | 35 | — | +15.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is currently 7.7% above its 200-week moving average of $196.11. It would need to fall to $196.11 to cross below the line.
What is WM's 200-week moving average price?
Waste Management, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $196.11 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WM drops below its 200-week moving average?
WM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 35 weeks on average.
Is WM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WM as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 2.8%. Return on equity is 29.8%. Price-to-book is 8.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in WM would have grown to $2844, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. WM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WM pay a dividend?
Yes. Waste Management, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 179.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18