WING
Wingstop Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →
Wingstop Inc. (WING) closed at $117.10 as of 2026-09-11, trading 53.0% below its 200-week moving average of $249.39. This places WING in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -56.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 539 weeks of data, WING has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WING at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +83.0%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, WING is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. The stock trades at -4.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 10.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WING would have grown to $582, compared to $430 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.4% vs 15.0% for the index — confirming WING as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 26.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WING vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WING Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying WING when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +119.0% after 12 months (median +119.0%), compared to +3.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +328.0% vs +26.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WING crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WING would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WING's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $103.51 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $123.49 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $153.02 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $201.14 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $293.38 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $1.02 | $1.18 | +15.4% |
| 2026-04-29 | $1.03 | $1.18 | +15.1% |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.83 | $1.00 | +20.0% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.92 | $1.09 | +19.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WING's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WING has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +83.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 15 | 31.5% | +83.0% | +17.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 3 | 7.6% | N/A | -45.5% |
| Dec 2025 | Dec 2025 | 1 | 0.5% | N/A | -50.0% |
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 9.0% | N/A | -46.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 28+ | 56.3% | Ongoing | -48.6% |
| Average | 10 | — | +83.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WING below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, Wingstop Inc. (WING) is trading 53.0% below its 200-week moving average of $249.39. The current price is $117.10.
What is WING's 200-week moving average price?
Wingstop Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $249.39 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WING drops below its 200-week moving average?
WING has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +83.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is WING a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WING as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 41. Free cash flow yield is 3.1%. Price-to-book is -4.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WING compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.4 years, $100 invested in WING would have grown to $582, compared to $430 for the S&P 500. That's 18.4% annualized vs 15.0% for the index. WING has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WING pay a dividend?
Yes. Wingstop Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 120.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11