WGO
Winnebago Industries, Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Recreational Vehicles Investor Relations →
Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) closed at $28.25 as of 2026-09-11, trading 38.5% below its 200-week moving average of $45.94. This places WGO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -33.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.10 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2746 weeks of data, WGO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WGO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.2%.
With a market cap of $799 million, WGO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 20.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 3.1%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.6% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WGO would have grown to $1099, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. WGO has returned 7.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -34.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WGO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WGO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying WGO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.7% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +15.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.8% vs +32.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WGO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WGO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WGO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $23.76 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $25.62 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $27.80 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $30.38 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $33.48 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | $0.77 | $0.66 | -14.7% |
| 2026-03-25 | $0.24 | $0.27 | +13.1% |
| 2025-12-19 | $0.14 | $0.38 | +177.3% |
| 2025-10-22 | $0.53 | $0.71 | +33.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WGO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WGO has crossed below its 200-week MA 39 times with an average 1-year return of +24.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Jan 1976 | 102 | 51.3% | -36.0% | +1590.0% |
| Aug 1976 | Nov 1976 | 15 | 16.9% | -39.1% | +1736.9% |
| Jan 1977 | Aug 1978 | 81 | 38.1% | -40.0% | +1777.7% |
| Sep 1978 | Mar 1981 | 129 | 54.9% | -46.2% | +2066.6% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 8.3% | +162.5% | +3420.8% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 12.5% | +61.7% | +1220.3% |
| Jun 1985 | Jul 1985 | 5 | 13.7% | +39.0% | +857.0% |
| Jul 1985 | Jan 1986 | 24 | 26.3% | -16.8% | +785.8% |
| Jun 1986 | Jan 1987 | 28 | 33.8% | -7.7% | +719.5% |
| Apr 1987 | Aug 1987 | 17 | 12.8% | -28.2% | +688.7% |
| Aug 1987 | Aug 1992 | 261 | 71.5% | -21.0% | +715.4% |
| Oct 1995 | Mar 1996 | 25 | 14.6% | +14.8% | +1095.5% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1997 | 54 | 24.9% | -15.8% | +925.1% |
| Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | 2.8% | +59.3% | +935.7% |
| Sep 1997 | Dec 1997 | 15 | 12.1% | +27.2% | +904.1% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 0.4% | +123.6% | +526.8% |
| Sep 2000 | Nov 2000 | 10 | 16.6% | +60.3% | +556.4% |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2006 | 1 | 1.0% | +8.6% | +34.2% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 1 | 1.0% | +11.3% | +33.0% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 6 | 3.8% | -6.7% | +31.5% |
| May 2007 | Dec 2010 | 187 | 86.4% | -47.8% | +19.8% |
| Mar 2011 | Jun 2012 | 67 | 46.2% | -22.0% | +175.7% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 2.1% | +21.8% | +82.6% |
| Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | 12 | 14.5% | +90.6% | +82.7% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 0.5% | +30.1% | +68.4% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 0.7% | +33.7% | +66.8% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 2 | 1.9% | +36.9% | +63.4% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 13 | 30.0% | +48.2% | +17.9% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 2 | 3.8% | +94.6% | +16.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 2.9% | -20.8% | +13.9% |
| Sep 2019 | Sep 2019 | 1 | 2.7% | +65.7% | +7.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 35.7% | +155.3% | -0.6% |
| May 2022 | Jul 2022 | 7 | 11.8% | +28.8% | -29.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 2.6% | +17.8% | -38.2% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 2 | 4.2% | +37.9% | -40.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 4 | 3.0% | +17.6% | -43.5% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 2.0% | +16.8% | -43.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 4 | 3.9% | +3.9% | -45.0% |
| May 2024 | Ongoing | 121+ | 47.0% | Ongoing | -48.2% |
| Average | 31 | — | +24.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WGO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) is trading 38.5% below its 200-week moving average of $45.94. The current price is $28.25.
What is WGO's 200-week moving average price?
Winnebago Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $45.94 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WGO drops below its 200-week moving average?
WGO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is WGO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WGO as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 20.6%. Return on equity is 3.1%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WGO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in WGO would have grown to $1099, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 7.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. WGO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WGO pay a dividend?
Yes. Winnebago Industries, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 511.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11