WGO
Winnebago Industries, Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Recreational Vehicles Investor Relations →
Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) closed at $28.67 as of 2026-06-19, trading 39.9% below its 200-week moving average of $47.71. This places WGO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -39.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.18 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, WGO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WGO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.3%.
With a market cap of $810 million, WGO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 13.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 3.4%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.6% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WGO would have grown to $1102, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. WGO has returned 7.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -34.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WGO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WGO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying WGO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.8% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +15.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.9% vs +33.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WGO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WGO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WGO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-06-25.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $25.91 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $30.89 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $38.24 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $50.18 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $72.96 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WGO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WGO has crossed below its 200-week MA 39 times with an average 1-year return of +24.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Jan 1976 | 102 | 51.3% | -36.0% | +1594.3% |
| Aug 1976 | Nov 1976 | 15 | 16.9% | -39.1% | +1741.7% |
| Jan 1977 | Aug 1978 | 81 | 38.1% | -40.0% | +1782.6% |
| Sep 1978 | Mar 1981 | 129 | 54.9% | -46.2% | +2072.2% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 8.3% | +162.5% | +3429.8% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 12.5% | +61.7% | +1223.7% |
| Jun 1985 | Jul 1985 | 5 | 13.7% | +39.0% | +859.5% |
| Jul 1985 | Jan 1986 | 24 | 26.3% | -16.8% | +788.0% |
| Jun 1986 | Jan 1987 | 28 | 33.8% | -7.7% | +721.6% |
| Apr 1987 | Aug 1987 | 17 | 12.8% | -28.2% | +690.7% |
| Aug 1987 | Aug 1992 | 261 | 71.5% | -21.0% | +717.5% |
| Oct 1995 | Mar 1996 | 25 | 14.6% | +14.8% | +1098.5% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1997 | 54 | 24.8% | -15.8% | +927.8% |
| Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | 2.8% | +59.3% | +938.4% |
| Sep 1997 | Dec 1997 | 15 | 12.1% | +27.2% | +906.7% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 0.4% | +123.6% | +528.4% |
| Sep 2000 | Nov 2000 | 10 | 16.6% | +60.3% | +558.1% |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2006 | 1 | 1.3% | +8.6% | +35.0% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 1 | 1.0% | +11.3% | +33.3% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 6 | 3.8% | -6.7% | +31.8% |
| May 2007 | Dec 2010 | 187 | 86.4% | -47.8% | +20.1% |
| Mar 2011 | Jun 2012 | 67 | 46.2% | -22.0% | +176.4% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 2.1% | +21.8% | +83.1% |
| Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | 12 | 14.5% | +90.6% | +83.2% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 0.5% | +30.1% | +68.8% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 0.7% | +33.7% | +67.2% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 1.8% | +42.3% | +66.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 13 | 30.0% | +48.2% | +18.2% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 2 | 3.7% | +94.6% | +16.8% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 2.9% | -20.8% | +14.2% |
| Sep 2019 | Sep 2019 | 1 | 2.7% | +65.7% | +7.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 35.7% | +155.3% | -0.4% |
| May 2022 | Jul 2022 | 7 | 11.8% | +28.8% | -28.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 2.6% | +17.8% | -38.0% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 2 | 4.2% | +37.9% | -40.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 4 | 3.0% | +17.6% | -43.4% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 2.0% | +16.8% | -43.4% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 4 | 3.9% | +3.9% | -44.8% |
| May 2024 | Ongoing | 109+ | 47.3% | Ongoing | -48.1% |
| Average | 31 | — | +24.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WGO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) is trading 39.9% below its 200-week moving average of $47.71. The current price is $28.67.
What is WGO's 200-week moving average price?
Winnebago Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $47.71 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WGO drops below its 200-week moving average?
WGO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is WGO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WGO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 36. Free cash flow yield is 13.2%. Return on equity is 3.4%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WGO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in WGO would have grown to $1102, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 7.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. WGO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19