WEN
The Wendy's Company Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →
The Wendy's Company (WEN) closed at $7.36 as of 2026-07-31, trading 46.6% below its 200-week moving average of $13.79. This places WEN in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -49.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading activity has gone quiet — just 0.5x of its usual 14-week average. But the buying that is happening outweighs the selling (2.31 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When volume dries up but buyers are still showing up more than sellers, it can mean the worst of the selling is over and the stock is quietly building a floor.
Over the past 2364 weeks of data, WEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WEN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.4%.
Return on equity stands at 120.9%, indicating strong profitability.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WEN would have grown to $286, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. WEN has returned 3.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 11.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WEN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WEN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying WEN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.7% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +17.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +22.7% vs +37.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WEN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WEN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WEN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-07.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $5.83 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $6.30 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $6.87 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $7.54 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $8.37 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WEN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WEN has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +11.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1981 | Jan 1983 | 77 | 29.1% | -23.1% | +1261.9% |
| Feb 1983 | Feb 1983 | 1 | 2.1% | +12.5% | +1375.4% |
| Mar 1984 | Sep 1986 | 132 | 46.6% | -23.1% | +1261.9% |
| Nov 1986 | Jan 1987 | 6 | 6.7% | +166.7% | +1586.2% |
| Jul 1990 | Feb 1992 | 81 | 77.3% | -66.7% | +490.2% |
| Oct 1994 | Oct 1994 | 1 | 0.0% | +6.8% | +243.8% |
| Oct 1994 | Apr 1995 | 24 | 24.7% | -16.0% | +276.7% |
| Jul 1995 | Mar 1997 | 89 | 37.5% | -16.1% | +216.2% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 2 | 1.5% | +32.4% | +176.6% |
| Sep 1998 | Mar 1999 | 24 | 19.4% | +44.4% | +196.3% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 2 | 1.9% | +44.2% | +150.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 6 | 6.0% | +44.9% | +156.6% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 3 | 1.3% | +41.6% | +98.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 3.2% | -58.9% | -10.0% |
| Sep 2007 | Jul 2011 | 200 | 75.8% | -55.9% | -7.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 12 | 10.8% | -6.7% | +134.3% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 0.1% | -2.0% | +134.3% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 7 | 3.6% | +32.2% | +152.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Nov 2012 | 17 | 9.8% | +61.2% | +147.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 30.3% | +91.1% | -13.4% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 11 | 16.4% | +15.3% | -53.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 8 | 6.3% | +7.7% | -53.1% |
| Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 | 4 | 2.6% | -11.6% | -56.4% |
| Oct 2023 | Apr 2024 | 29 | 9.1% | -1.9% | -54.3% |
| May 2024 | Oct 2024 | 23 | 16.3% | -33.0% | -55.5% |
| Nov 2024 | Ongoing | 90+ | 54.2% | Ongoing | -54.7% |
| Average | 33 | — | +11.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WEN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, The Wendy's Company (WEN) is trading 46.6% below its 200-week moving average of $13.79. The current price is $7.36.
What is WEN's 200-week moving average price?
The Wendy's Company's 200-week moving average is $13.79 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WEN drops below its 200-week moving average?
WEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 33 weeks on average.
Is WEN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WEN as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Return on equity is 120.9%. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WEN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in WEN would have grown to $286, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 3.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. WEN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WEN pay a dividend?
Yes. The Wendy's Company currently pays a dividend yield of 761.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31