WELL
Welltower Inc. Real Estate - Healthcare REITs Investor Relations →
Welltower Inc. (WELL) closed at $234.44 as of 2026-07-31, trading 88.4% above its 200-week moving average of $124.46. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 104.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, WELL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WELL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.4%.
With a market cap of $168.9 billion, WELL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at 3.8%. The stock trades at 3.8x book value.
Share count has increased 42.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WELL would have grown to $8598, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming WELL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WELL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WELL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying WELL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +36.2% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +19.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +65.2% vs +35.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WELL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WELL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WELL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $196.91 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $205.13 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $214.06 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $223.81 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $234.48 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WELL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WELL has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +30.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 3 | 2.9% | +2.3% | +51491.5% |
| May 1981 | Jun 1981 | 3 | 1.5% | +2.2% | +50345.0% |
| Aug 1981 | Dec 1981 | 17 | 6.5% | +2.2% | +49248.4% |
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1982 | 2 | 1.7% | +16.7% | +50345.0% |
| Feb 1982 | May 1982 | 14 | 5.9% | +30.0% | +50345.0% |
| May 1982 | Aug 1982 | 12 | 5.7% | +53.3% | +50345.0% |
| Oct 1988 | May 1989 | 28 | 17.4% | +29.1% | +24780.3% |
| Aug 1990 | Sep 1990 | 2 | 0.1% | +59.1% | +20661.7% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 2 | 1.4% | +58.0% | +20661.7% |
| Aug 1995 | Jan 1996 | 21 | 16.7% | +28.3% | +8308.2% |
| Aug 1999 | Aug 2000 | 51 | 27.8% | +9.3% | +5498.8% |
| Aug 2000 | Jan 2001 | 20 | 8.3% | +54.5% | +5182.9% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 2 | 4.4% | +30.7% | +1329.5% |
| Feb 2009 | Jul 2009 | 22 | 24.6% | +35.2% | +1441.6% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 0.6% | +11.1% | +493.9% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 7.8% | +27.2% | +526.9% |
| Jan 2018 | Jun 2018 | 25 | 18.0% | +16.0% | +401.5% |
| Jul 2018 | Jul 2018 | 1 | 0.1% | +41.3% | +390.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 35 | 43.0% | +51.3% | +445.9% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 3.2% | +43.2% | +345.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 16 | 18.2% | +28.2% | +283.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 3.5% | +39.6% | +270.6% |
| Average | 13 | — | +30.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WELL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Welltower Inc. (WELL) is currently 88.4% above its 200-week moving average of $124.46. It would need to fall to $124.46 to cross below the line.
What is WELL's 200-week moving average price?
Welltower Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $124.46 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WELL drops below its 200-week moving average?
WELL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is WELL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WELL as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Free cash flow yield is 1.6%. Return on equity is 3.8%. Price-to-book is 3.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WELL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in WELL would have grown to $8598, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 14.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. WELL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WELL pay a dividend?
Yes. Welltower Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 145.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31