WAL
Western Alliance Bancorporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) closed at $78.54 as of 2026-09-18, trading 17.1% above its 200-week moving average of $67.07. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 18.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1059 weeks of data, WAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WAL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.5%.
With a market cap of $8.6 billion, WAL is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 13.0%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Over the past 20.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WAL would have grown to $263, compared to $866 for the S&P 500. WAL has returned 4.9% annualized vs 11.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WAL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WAL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying WAL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.3% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +18.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +62.5% vs +41.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WAL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. WAL currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $2.35 | $2.28 | -3.3% |
| 2026-04-21 | $1.36 | $1.25 | -8.6% |
| 2026-01-26 | $2.38 | $2.59 | +8.9% |
| 2025-10-21 | $2.07 | $2.15 | +3.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WAL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WAL has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +12.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2007 | Jan 2012 | 254 | 82.4% | -66.7% | +191.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 14.0% | +31.6% | +121.5% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 2 | 1.3% | +25.3% | +105.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 7 | 13.7% | -8.6% | +107.9% |
| May 2019 | Oct 2019 | 22 | 10.2% | -32.7% | +105.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 45.5% | +103.4% | +95.7% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 3.8% | -28.6% | +35.1% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 6 | 13.1% | -3.8% | +41.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Dec 2023 | 41 | 58.9% | +26.5% | +72.9% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 2 | 3.6% | +36.2% | +31.1% |
| Jan 2024 | Jul 2024 | 24 | 14.2% | +49.0% | +37.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 11.0% | +18.3% | +30.3% |
| Average | 34 | — | +12.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WAL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) is currently 17.1% above its 200-week moving average of $67.07. It would need to fall to $67.07 to cross below the line.
What is WAL's 200-week moving average price?
Western Alliance Bancorporation's 200-week moving average is $67.07 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WAL drops below its 200-week moving average?
WAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is WAL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WAL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. Return on equity is 13.0%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WAL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20.3 years, $100 invested in WAL would have grown to $263, compared to $866 for the S&P 500. That's 4.9% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. WAL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WAL pay a dividend?
Yes. Western Alliance Bancorporation currently pays a dividend yield of 214.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18