W
Wayfair Inc. Consumer Discretionary - E-Commerce Investor Relations →
Wayfair Inc. (W) closed at $102.46 as of 2026-09-18, trading 67.7% above its 200-week moving average of $61.09. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 62.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 69, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.39 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 576 weeks of data, W has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 51 weeks. Historically, investors who bought W at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +101.9%.
With a market cap of $14.0 billion, W is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%.
Share count has increased 20.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in W would have grown to $283, compared to $476 for the S&P 500. W has returned 9.8% annualized vs 15.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: W vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After W Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying W when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +135.2% after 12 months (median +129.0%), compared to +17.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +94.0% vs +27.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment W crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices W would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where W's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $76.94 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $85.56 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $96.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $110.27 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $128.89 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $0.92 | $0.95 | +3.1% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.28 | $0.26 | -6.8% |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.69 | $0.85 | +23.9% |
| 2025-10-28 | $0.44 | $0.70 | +59.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from W's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
W has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +101.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 7 | 8.4% | +101.6% | +189.2% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 2 | 1.3% | +125.6% | +190.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Apr 2020 | 9 | 68.2% | +255.3% | +24.3% |
| Jan 2022 | Aug 2025 | 186 | 83.7% | -74.8% | -40.2% |
| Average | 51 | — | +101.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is W below its 200-week moving average?
No. Wayfair Inc. (W) is currently 67.7% above its 200-week moving average of $61.09. It would need to fall to $61.09 to cross below the line.
What is W's 200-week moving average price?
Wayfair Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $61.09 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when W drops below its 200-week moving average?
W has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +101.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 51 weeks on average.
Is W a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about W as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 69. Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does W compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.1 years, $100 invested in W would have grown to $283, compared to $476 for the S&P 500. That's 9.8% annualized vs 15.1% for the index. W has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18