VXRT
Vaxart Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Vaxart Inc. (VXRT) closed at $0.55 as of 2026-06-19, trading 31.2% below its 200-week moving average of $0.80. This places VXRT in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -31.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2275 weeks of data, VXRT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 60 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VXRT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +49.7%.
With a market cap of $133 million, VXRT is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 53.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 79.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VXRT would have grown to $0, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. VXRT has returned -15.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VXRT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VXRT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying VXRT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +42.8% after 12 months (median +46.0%), compared to +5.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.6% vs +15.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VXRT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VXRT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VXRT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $0.59 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $0.69 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $0.83 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1.05 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1.40 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from VXRT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
VXRT has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +49.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1982 | Dec 1982 | 3 | 24.3% | +38.5% | -99.4% |
| Jan 1983 | Jan 1983 | 1 | 17.7% | +33.3% | -99.4% |
| Sep 1983 | Jun 1986 | 142 | 73.7% | -52.4% | -99.6% |
| Jun 1986 | Sep 1986 | 12 | 29.4% | +53.3% | -99.5% |
| Sep 1986 | Feb 1987 | 18 | 29.6% | -12.5% | -99.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Jul 1990 | 143 | 54.9% | -9.1% | -99.3% |
| Aug 1990 | Jan 1991 | 24 | 31.5% | +4.8% | -99.3% |
| Feb 1991 | Feb 1991 | 1 | 1.0% | +230.0% | -99.3% |
| Sep 1991 | Sep 1991 | 1 | 2.9% | +174.3% | -99.2% |
| Mar 1997 | Jan 2000 | 147 | 78.2% | -55.4% | -99.9% |
| Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 7 | 20.4% | +25.7% | -99.8% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 2 | 9.3% | +24.8% | -99.8% |
| Nov 2000 | Jan 2001 | 7 | 30.4% | +75.0% | -99.8% |
| Jan 2001 | Feb 2001 | 3 | 3.6% | +97.1% | -99.8% |
| Mar 2002 | Mar 2002 | 1 | 5.5% | +10.2% | -99.8% |
| Jun 2002 | Aug 2002 | 6 | 26.9% | +43.8% | -99.8% |
| Aug 2002 | Oct 2002 | 9 | 8.3% | +21.6% | -99.8% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 9 | 15.0% | +193.5% | -99.8% |
| Apr 2003 | Apr 2003 | 1 | 1.1% | +180.2% | -99.8% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 4 | 16.4% | +87.1% | -99.8% |
| Oct 2005 | Nov 2009 | 211 | 68.1% | +84.1% | -99.7% |
| Jul 2011 | Jun 2020 | 466 | 96.2% | -22.2% | -99.6% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 11 | 26.6% | -81.6% | -85.8% |
| Jul 2022 | Ongoing | 205+ | 86.7% | Ongoing | -85.3% |
| Average | 60 | — | +49.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VXRT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Vaxart Inc. (VXRT) is trading 31.2% below its 200-week moving average of $0.80. The current price is $0.55.
What is VXRT's 200-week moving average price?
Vaxart Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $0.80 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VXRT drops below its 200-week moving average?
VXRT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +49.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 60 weeks on average.
Is VXRT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VXRT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 53.1%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VXRT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in VXRT would have grown to $0, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's -15.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. VXRT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19