VTR
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Ventas Inc. (VTR) closed at $93.51 as of 2026-07-31, trading 65.0% above its 200-week moving average of $56.66. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 78.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1477 weeks of data, VTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VTR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.2%.
With a market cap of $48.0 billion, VTR is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 2.0%. The stock trades at 3.3x book value.
Share count has increased 18.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 28.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VTR would have grown to $2014, compared to $1093 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.2% vs 8.8% for the index — confirming VTR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 14.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VTR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VTR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying VTR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.4% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +15.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.3% vs +35.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VTR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VTR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VTR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $79.64 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $83.02 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $86.71 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $90.73 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $95.15 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from VTR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
VTR has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +4.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1998 | Feb 2001 | 148 | 73.6% | -74.2% | +2321.4% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 40 | 41.8% | +33.9% | +463.6% |
| Aug 2015 | May 2016 | 40 | 27.5% | +29.6% | +151.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Feb 2017 | 16 | 10.7% | +6.0% | +122.3% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 2 | 4.8% | -14.9% | +127.3% |
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 1 | 0.5% | -3.8% | +115.0% |
| Dec 2017 | Nov 2018 | 46 | 22.3% | +6.2% | +123.5% |
| Dec 2019 | Dec 2019 | 2 | 3.3% | -5.7% | +117.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 50 | 61.9% | +4.5% | +121.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 5.2% | -4.7% | +121.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.9% | -2.1% | +120.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 23 | 26.9% | -4.4% | +118.5% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 7 | 11.9% | +3.4% | +134.5% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 7 | 8.9% | +6.4% | +123.0% |
| Jul 2023 | Nov 2023 | 16 | 11.8% | +30.5% | +128.5% |
| Feb 2024 | Apr 2024 | 11 | 6.4% | +57.3% | +130.1% |
| Average | 26 | — | +4.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VTR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ventas Inc. (VTR) is currently 65.0% above its 200-week moving average of $56.66. It would need to fall to $56.66 to cross below the line.
What is VTR's 200-week moving average price?
Ventas Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $56.66 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VTR drops below its 200-week moving average?
VTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is VTR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VTR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Return on equity is 2.0%. Price-to-book is 3.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VTR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.3 years, $100 invested in VTR would have grown to $2014, compared to $1093 for the S&P 500. That's 11.2% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. VTR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VTR pay a dividend?
Yes. Ventas Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 214.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31