VST
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Vistra Corp. (VST) closed at $155.28 as of 2026-05-01, trading 69.4% above its 200-week moving average of $91.68. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 80.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 451 weeks of data, VST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.6%.
With a market cap of $52.6 billion, VST is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 17.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 20.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 8.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VST would have grown to $973, compared to $328 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 30.0% vs 14.7% for the index — confirming VST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying VST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.8% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +27.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.2% vs +24.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
VST has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +7.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 31.3% | -7.6% | +826.6% |
| Jun 2020 | Jan 2021 | 30 | 14.3% | -5.0% | +774.4% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 1.9% | +12.0% | +765.8% |
| Feb 2021 | Nov 2021 | 40 | 21.4% | +31.1% | +902.3% |
| Average | 21 | — | +7.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VST below its 200-week moving average?
No. Vistra Corp. (VST) is currently 69.4% above its 200-week moving average of $91.68. It would need to fall to $91.68 to cross below the line.
What is VST's 200-week moving average price?
Vistra Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $91.68 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VST drops below its 200-week moving average?
VST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is VST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VST as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 17.7%. Price-to-book is 20.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.7 years, $100 invested in VST would have grown to $973, compared to $328 for the S&P 500. That's 30.0% annualized vs 14.7% for the index. VST has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VST pay a dividend?
Yes. Vistra Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 59.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01