VST
Vistra Corp. Utilities - Utilities - Independent Power Producers Investor Relations →
Vistra Corp. (VST) closed at $149.65 as of 2026-02-02, trading 79.1% above its 200-week moving average of $83.56. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 90.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 26, VST is in oversold territory.
Over the past 439 weeks of data, VST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.6%.
With a market cap of $50.7 billion, VST is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.6%. Return on equity stands at 17.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 18.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 27.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 8.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VST would have grown to $936, compared to $315 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 30.1% vs 14.4% for the index — confirming VST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: VST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying VST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.8% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +27.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.2% vs +24.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
VST has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +7.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 31.3% | -7.6% | +791.8% |
| Jun 2020 | Jan 2021 | 30 | 14.3% | -5.0% | +741.6% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 1.9% | +12.0% | +733.3% |
| Feb 2021 | Nov 2021 | 40 | 21.4% | +31.1% | +864.7% |
| Average | 21 | — | +7.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02