VNO
Vornado Realty Trust Real Estate - Office Investor Relations →
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) closed at $37.81 as of 2026-06-19, trading 31.9% above its 200-week moving average of $28.66. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 33.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, VNO is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.75 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, VNO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VNO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.1%.
With a market cap of $7.7 billion, VNO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 15.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 12.6%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VNO would have grown to $1983, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. VNO has returned 9.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $5,633,750. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VNO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VNO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying VNO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -5.7% after 12 months (median -6.0%), compared to +4.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 40% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -4.8% vs +19.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VNO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VNO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VNO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $18.87 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $21.63 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $25.35 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $30.60 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $38.60 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from VNO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
VNO has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +2.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | May 1981 | 11 | 30.9% | -4.5% | +31441.9% |
| May 1981 | Sep 1982 | 68 | 45.1% | -19.4% | +24432.6% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 1 | 2.9% | +72.4% | +28621.1% |
| Jul 1990 | Sep 1990 | 9 | 6.3% | +40.3% | +4250.6% |
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 5 | 2.1% | +37.1% | +4187.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 4.5% | -26.4% | +27.7% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 3 | 6.2% | -58.4% | +25.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 1.2% | -45.3% | +18.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2010 | 81 | 65.8% | -19.1% | +27.9% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 5 | 5.6% | +26.7% | +22.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 6.6% | +37.4% | +30.7% |
| Oct 2011 | Oct 2011 | 1 | 0.0% | +18.2% | +27.8% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 2.1% | +34.7% | -14.0% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 1 | 0.2% | +7.7% | -26.8% |
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 0.5% | +5.6% | -26.8% |
| Oct 2017 | Nov 2017 | 3 | 2.6% | -5.0% | -27.4% |
| Jan 2018 | Jun 2018 | 24 | 12.6% | -6.1% | -25.4% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 4 | 4.8% | -8.0% | -27.0% |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 2020 | 67 | 15.0% | -8.7% | -28.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2024 | 233 | 63.7% | -37.9% | -25.1% |
| Feb 2026 | Apr 2026 | 7 | 12.9% | N/A | +37.1% |
| Average | 25 | — | +2.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VNO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) is currently 31.9% above its 200-week moving average of $28.66. It would need to fall to $28.66 to cross below the line.
What is VNO's 200-week moving average price?
Vornado Realty Trust's 200-week moving average is $28.66 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VNO drops below its 200-week moving average?
VNO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is VNO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VNO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 15.6%. Return on equity is 12.6%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VNO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in VNO would have grown to $1983, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 9.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. VNO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VNO pay a dividend?
Yes. Vornado Realty Trust currently pays a dividend yield of 196.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19