VMC
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Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) closed at $240.83 as of 2026-09-18, trading 2.1% below its 200-week moving average of $245.99. This places VMC in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.14 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, VMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VMC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.0%.
With a market cap of $31.2 billion, VMC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 13.2%. The stock trades at 3.7x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VMC would have grown to $2551, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. VMC has returned 10.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 28.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VMC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VMC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying VMC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.6% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +6.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.4% vs +23.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VMC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VMC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VMC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $247.70 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $268.57 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $293.29 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $323.01 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $359.43 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $2.47 | $2.59 | +4.9% |
| 2026-04-29 | $1.10 | $1.35 | +22.3% |
| 2026-02-17 | $2.11 | $1.70 | -19.5% |
| 2025-10-30 | $2.72 | $2.84 | +4.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from VMC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
VMC has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +20.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1974 | Oct 1974 | 16 | 13.3% | +48.5% | +48498.4% |
| Nov 1974 | Jan 1975 | 10 | 13.8% | +21.8% | +46573.8% |
| Aug 1990 | Apr 1991 | 34 | 21.0% | +3.4% | +3512.7% |
| May 1991 | Jun 1991 | 2 | 2.2% | +21.9% | +3471.4% |
| Jul 1991 | Aug 1991 | 7 | 4.2% | +22.4% | +3435.1% |
| Nov 1991 | Jan 1992 | 8 | 8.2% | +25.7% | +3354.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 6.5% | +2.3% | +789.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2003 | 57 | 28.0% | -2.8% | +734.6% |
| Sep 2003 | Sep 2003 | 1 | 2.3% | +25.7% | +716.6% |
| Dec 2007 | May 2008 | 19 | 10.4% | +1.4% | +318.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 12 | 32.4% | -32.2% | +313.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2012 | 175 | 51.6% | -19.0% | +352.7% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 3.1% | +19.3% | +510.6% |
| Mar 2012 | Jul 2012 | 16 | 24.7% | +16.6% | +503.3% |
| Jul 2012 | Sep 2012 | 7 | 9.6% | +23.1% | +569.4% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 18 | 18.8% | +47.5% | +155.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 29.9% | +40.3% | +111.5% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 2.4% | +54.7% | +115.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 0.5% | +59.7% | +74.8% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 2.1% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 20 | — | +20.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VMC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) is trading 2.1% below its 200-week moving average of $245.99. The current price is $240.83.
What is VMC's 200-week moving average price?
Vulcan Materials Company's 200-week moving average is $245.99 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VMC drops below its 200-week moving average?
VMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is VMC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VMC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 32. Free cash flow yield is 2.7%. Return on equity is 13.2%. Price-to-book is 3.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VMC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in VMC would have grown to $2551, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. VMC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VMC pay a dividend?
Yes. Vulcan Materials Company currently pays a dividend yield of 86.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18