VLO
Valero Energy Corporation Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) closed at $413.28 as of 2026-09-18, trading 167.2% above its 200-week moving average of $154.66. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 154.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, VLO is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 2284 weeks of data, VLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VLO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.3%.
With a market cap of $119.0 billion, VLO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 27.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 19.7% over the past three years. VLO passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VLO would have grown to $25727, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming VLO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -22.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VLO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VLO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying VLO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +42.0% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +76.6% vs +29.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VLO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VLO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VLO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $234.26 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $261.06 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $294.79 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $338.53 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $397.50 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $10.13 | $12.54 | +23.8% |
| 2026-04-30 | $3.16 | $4.22 | +33.5% |
| 2026-01-29 | $3.27 | $3.82 | +16.9% |
| 2025-10-23 | $3.05 | $3.66 | +19.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from VLO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
VLO has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +26.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 5.0% | -29.4% | +33949.0% |
| Oct 1983 | Jan 1984 | 11 | 10.9% | -62.4% | +28712.7% |
| Jan 1984 | Jun 1987 | 176 | 67.6% | -60.3% | +28545.9% |
| Sep 1987 | Jan 1989 | 70 | 52.6% | -27.4% | +58253.8% |
| Dec 1993 | Jan 1994 | 7 | 10.1% | -9.7% | +26918.5% |
| Feb 1994 | Jul 1995 | 73 | 27.9% | -15.5% | +25675.2% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 2 | 3.4% | +107.9% | +25819.3% |
| Aug 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 0.5% | +135.5% | +25054.6% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 8 | 11.5% | +20.3% | +18855.2% |
| Nov 1998 | Mar 1999 | 18 | 20.8% | +11.6% | +16550.4% |
| May 1999 | Aug 1999 | 14 | 13.5% | +32.3% | +15757.6% |
| Aug 1999 | Jan 2000 | 23 | 21.6% | +33.3% | +15654.7% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 4 | 22.7% | +30.0% | +11458.7% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 3 | 4.2% | -60.2% | +1544.7% |
| Apr 2008 | Oct 2011 | 182 | 69.3% | -57.3% | +1530.4% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 9 | 15.6% | +37.2% | +3346.2% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 1.1% | +119.5% | +3487.2% |
| Jul 2016 | Jul 2016 | 1 | 0.1% | +48.9% | +1184.4% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.6% | -0.8% | +676.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 48.6% | +24.2% | +699.3% |
| Apr 2021 | Apr 2021 | 3 | 2.7% | +52.8% | +597.1% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 12 | 15.8% | +55.1% | +576.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 3.5% | +106.4% | +589.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 7.9% | +140.0% | +309.9% |
| Average | 28 | — | +26.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VLO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is currently 167.2% above its 200-week moving average of $154.66. It would need to fall to $154.66 to cross below the line.
What is VLO's 200-week moving average price?
Valero Energy Corporation's 200-week moving average is $154.66 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VLO drops below its 200-week moving average?
VLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is VLO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VLO as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 7.1%. Return on equity is 27.6%. Price-to-book is 4.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VLO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in VLO would have grown to $25727, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 17.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. VLO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VLO pay a dividend?
Yes. Valero Energy Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 116.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18