VLO
Valero Energy Corporation Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) closed at $202.68 as of 2026-02-02, trading 57.3% above its 200-week moving average of $128.83. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 40.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 69, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2252 weeks of data, VLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VLO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.5%.
With a market cap of $63.0 billion, VLO is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 8.3%. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 23.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VLO would have grown to $12567, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.7% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming VLO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: VLO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VLO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying VLO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +33.3% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +12.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 74% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +76.5% vs +29.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VLO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
VLO has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +21.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 5.0% | -29.4% | +16455.3% |
| Oct 1983 | Jan 1984 | 11 | 10.9% | -62.4% | +13909.3% |
| Jan 1984 | Jun 1987 | 176 | 67.6% | -60.3% | +13828.2% |
| Sep 1987 | Jan 1989 | 70 | 52.6% | -27.4% | +28272.8% |
| Dec 1993 | Jan 1994 | 7 | 10.1% | -9.7% | +13036.9% |
| Feb 1994 | Jul 1995 | 73 | 27.8% | -15.5% | +12432.4% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 2 | 3.4% | +107.9% | +12502.5% |
| Aug 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 0.4% | +135.5% | +12130.7% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 8 | 11.3% | +20.3% | +9116.4% |
| Nov 1998 | Mar 1999 | 18 | 20.6% | +11.6% | +7995.7% |
| May 1999 | Aug 1999 | 14 | 13.3% | +32.8% | +7638.8% |
| Aug 1999 | Jan 2000 | 23 | 21.4% | +33.3% | +7560.3% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 4 | 22.6% | +30.0% | +5520.1% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 3 | 4.2% | -60.2% | +699.7% |
| Apr 2008 | Oct 2011 | 182 | 69.3% | -57.3% | +692.7% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 9 | 15.5% | +38.1% | +1585.8% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 1.0% | +119.5% | +1644.2% |
| Jul 2016 | Jul 2016 | 1 | 0.0% | +48.9% | +524.5% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.5% | -0.8% | +277.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 48.6% | +24.2% | +288.6% |
| Apr 2021 | Apr 2021 | 3 | 2.7% | +52.8% | +239.0% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 12 | 15.7% | +55.1% | +229.1% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 3.4% | +107.6% | +239.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 7.8% | N/A | +99.3% |
| Average | 28 | — | +21.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02