VICI

VICI Properties Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Diversified Investor Relations →

YES
11.9% BELOW
↓ Approaching Was -9.6% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Signal Threshold $26.93
14-Week RSI 27 📉
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.6x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.06

VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) closed at $23.72 as of 2026-09-18, trading 11.9% below its 200-week moving average of $26.93. This places VICI in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -9.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 27, VICI is in oversold territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 406 weeks of data, VICI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 6 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VICI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.9%.

With a market cap of $26.1 billion, VICI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 9.8%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.

Share count has increased 11.0% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 7.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VICI would have grown to $191, compared to $342 for the S&P 500. VICI has returned 8.6% annualized vs 17.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: VICI vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After VICI Crosses Below the Line?

Across 6 historical episodes, buying VICI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +80.5% after 12 months (median +121.0%), compared to +43.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +91.0% vs +67.5% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VICI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VICI would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +2.67σ
Current FCF Yield 10.10%
Baseline Yield 8.98%
Historical σ 0.38pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where VICI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$24.33Unusually cheap — analysis point
Value+1σ$25.30Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$26.35Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$27.49Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$28.73Unusually expensive — analysis point

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Recent Earnings

DateEPS Est.EPS ActualSurprise
2026-07-29$0.71$0.48-31.8%
2026-04-29$0.71$0.82+15.0%
2026-02-25$0.70$0.57-19.1%
2025-10-30$0.69$0.71+3.4%
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 24 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

13 / 13 weeks minimum

the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from VICI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation +1.31σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +1.97σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -2.3pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -7.2pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+11.5pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Historical Touches

VICI has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +57.9% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Dec 2018Jan 201936.3%+43.7%+97.5%
Mar 2020Jun 20201240.3%+72.1%+95.6%
Dec 2025Dec 202531.8%N/A-8.5%
Jan 2026Jan 202610.6%N/A-10.0%
Mar 2026Apr 202634.1%N/A-8.4%
Jun 2026Ongoing16+11.9%Ongoing-11.8%
Average6+57.9%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is VICI below its 200-week moving average?

Yes. As of 2026-09-18, VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) is trading 11.9% below its 200-week moving average of $26.93. The current price is $23.72.

What is VICI's 200-week moving average price?

VICI Properties Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $26.93 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when VICI drops below its 200-week moving average?

VICI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +57.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 6 weeks on average.

Is VICI a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about VICI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 27 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 1.0%. Return on equity is 9.8%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does VICI compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 7.8 years, $100 invested in VICI would have grown to $191, compared to $342 for the S&P 500. That's 8.6% annualized vs 17.0% for the index. VICI has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does VICI pay a dividend?

Yes. VICI Properties Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 776.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-09-18