VICI
VICI Properties Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Diversified Investor Relations →
VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) closed at $23.72 as of 2026-09-18, trading 11.9% below its 200-week moving average of $26.93. This places VICI in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -9.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 27, VICI is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 406 weeks of data, VICI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 6 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VICI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.9%.
With a market cap of $26.1 billion, VICI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 9.8%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Share count has increased 11.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 7.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VICI would have grown to $191, compared to $342 for the S&P 500. VICI has returned 8.6% annualized vs 17.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VICI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VICI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying VICI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +80.5% after 12 months (median +121.0%), compared to +43.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +91.0% vs +67.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VICI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VICI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VICI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $24.33 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $25.30 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $26.35 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $27.49 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $28.73 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.71 | $0.48 | -31.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.71 | $0.82 | +15.0% |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.70 | $0.57 | -19.1% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.69 | $0.71 | +3.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from VICI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
VICI has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +57.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 6.3% | +43.7% | +97.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 12 | 40.3% | +72.1% | +95.6% |
| Dec 2025 | Dec 2025 | 3 | 1.8% | N/A | -8.5% |
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2026 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | -10.0% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 3 | 4.1% | N/A | -8.4% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 16+ | 11.9% | Ongoing | -11.8% |
| Average | 6 | — | +57.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VICI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) is trading 11.9% below its 200-week moving average of $26.93. The current price is $23.72.
What is VICI's 200-week moving average price?
VICI Properties Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $26.93 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VICI drops below its 200-week moving average?
VICI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +57.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 6 weeks on average.
Is VICI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VICI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 27 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 1.0%. Return on equity is 9.8%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VICI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.8 years, $100 invested in VICI would have grown to $191, compared to $342 for the S&P 500. That's 8.6% annualized vs 17.0% for the index. VICI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VICI pay a dividend?
Yes. VICI Properties Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 776.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18