VALE
Vale S.A. Materials - Mining Investor Relations →
Vale S.A. (VALE) closed at $14.21 as of 2026-09-18, trading 29.3% above its 200-week moving average of $10.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 38.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1230 weeks of data, VALE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VALE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.2%.
With a market cap of $60.5 billion, VALE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 22.0%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 4.1%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Over the past 23.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VALE would have grown to $1998, compared to $1381 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.5% vs 11.7% for the index — confirming VALE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -22.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VALE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VALE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying VALE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.7% after 12 months (median +42.0%), compared to +21.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +49.3% vs +36.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VALE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VALE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VALE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $13.45 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $13.95 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $14.49 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $15.07 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $15.70 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | $0.49 | $0.36 | -26.2% |
| 2026-04-28 | $0.50 | $0.44 | -11.7% |
| 2026-02-11 | $0.63 | $0.34 | -45.2% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.52 | $0.64 | +22.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from VALE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
VALE has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +26.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2008 | May 2009 | 33 | 44.8% | +50.8% | +161.1% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 5 | 14.4% | +47.3% | +114.0% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 5 | 9.7% | -18.5% | +55.0% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 9 | 13.8% | -15.3% | +66.0% |
| Mar 2012 | Jan 2017 | 253 | 80.3% | -14.5% | +57.5% |
| Jun 2017 | Jun 2017 | 1 | 1.3% | +70.8% | +262.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 33.1% | +79.5% | +169.3% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 1 | 2.7% | +61.0% | +144.1% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.7% | +41.9% | +139.9% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.9% | -4.4% | +50.2% |
| Mar 2024 | Oct 2025 | 83 | 30.6% | -10.8% | +44.8% |
| Average | 38 | — | +26.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VALE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Vale S.A. (VALE) is currently 29.3% above its 200-week moving average of $10.99. It would need to fall to $10.99 to cross below the line.
What is VALE's 200-week moving average price?
Vale S.A.'s 200-week moving average is $10.99 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VALE drops below its 200-week moving average?
VALE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is VALE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VALE as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 41. Free cash flow yield is 22.0%. Return on equity is 4.1%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VALE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.7 years, $100 invested in VALE would have grown to $1998, compared to $1381 for the S&P 500. That's 13.5% annualized vs 11.7% for the index. VALE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VALE pay a dividend?
Yes. Vale S.A. currently pays a dividend yield of 838.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18