VALE
Vale S.A. Materials - Mining Investor Relations →
Vale S.A. (VALE) closed at $16.30 as of 2026-02-02, trading 48.1% above its 200-week moving average of $11.00. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 46.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 90, VALE is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1198 weeks of data, VALE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VALE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.7%.
With a market cap of $69.6 billion, VALE is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 13.3%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 23.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VALE would have grown to $2115, compared to $1242 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.1% vs 11.5% for the index — confirming VALE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -47.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: VALE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VALE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying VALE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.7% after 12 months (median +42.0%), compared to +21.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.1% vs +38.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VALE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
VALE has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +22.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2008 | May 2009 | 33 | 44.8% | +50.8% | +176.5% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 5 | 14.3% | +47.3% | +126.6% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 5 | 9.7% | -18.5% | +64.1% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 9 | 13.7% | -15.3% | +75.7% |
| Mar 2012 | Jan 2017 | 253 | 80.3% | -14.5% | +66.8% |
| Jun 2017 | Jun 2017 | 1 | 1.2% | +70.8% | +283.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 33.1% | +79.5% | +185.1% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | 3.3% | +50.0% | +160.7% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.6% | +41.9% | +154.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 1 | 2.8% | -4.7% | +65.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.7% | -4.4% | +59.0% |
| Mar 2024 | Oct 2025 | 83 | 30.5% | -10.3% | +60.1% |
| Average | 34 | — | +22.7% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02