USB
U.S. Bancorp Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
U.S. Bancorp (USB) closed at $58.14 as of 2026-06-19, trading 41.6% above its 200-week moving average of $41.06. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 43.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 70, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2724 weeks of data, USB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought USB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.3%.
With a market cap of $90.6 billion, USB is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 12.4%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in USB would have grown to $4267, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming USB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -27.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: USB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After USB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying USB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.8% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +9.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.8% vs +18.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment USB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices USB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where USB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-16.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $50.12 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $52.06 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $54.15 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $56.41 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $58.87 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from USB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
USB has crossed below its 200-week MA 41 times with an average 1-year return of +14.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | Jan 1975 | 40 | 24.6% | -1.9% | +44059.2% |
| Mar 1975 | Mar 1975 | 4 | 3.8% | +26.5% | +46106.4% |
| Oct 1979 | Dec 1979 | 7 | 4.0% | +5.0% | +30738.3% |
| Feb 1980 | Apr 1980 | 11 | 13.5% | +0.5% | +29748.8% |
| Sep 1980 | Jan 1981 | 14 | 5.1% | +3.1% | +28971.5% |
| Jan 1981 | Mar 1981 | 8 | 5.4% | +8.4% | +29277.5% |
| May 1981 | May 1981 | 3 | 0.6% | +4.1% | +28671.8% |
| Aug 1981 | Sep 1981 | 2 | 1.0% | +4.1% | +28671.8% |
| Apr 1982 | Apr 1982 | 1 | 0.9% | +54.1% | +28378.2% |
| May 1982 | Aug 1982 | 11 | 5.0% | +81.1% | +29277.5% |
| Sep 1988 | Oct 1988 | 2 | 2.0% | +29.4% | +9202.9% |
| Dec 1988 | Mar 1989 | 13 | 4.5% | +10.8% | +8961.2% |
| Apr 1989 | Apr 1989 | 2 | 3.3% | -2.6% | +8902.8% |
| Jan 1990 | Apr 1990 | 15 | 8.3% | -14.5% | +8444.4% |
| Jul 1990 | Feb 1991 | 31 | 20.7% | +13.4% | +8463.9% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 6.4% | +29.8% | +677.8% |
| Jul 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 1.6% | +22.7% | +598.8% |
| Oct 2000 | Dec 2000 | 9 | 18.0% | +0.2% | +621.0% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | 4.0% | +11.1% | +549.4% |
| Apr 2001 | May 2001 | 4 | 3.7% | +14.2% | +524.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 1 | 2.0% | +10.5% | +527.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Mar 2002 | 25 | 24.3% | +3.1% | +590.6% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2002 | 19 | 20.3% | +21.8% | +509.9% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 4 | 3.6% | +35.5% | +500.0% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 12 | 7.3% | +39.6% | +500.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 4 | 10.4% | -33.3% | +255.5% |
| Nov 2008 | Apr 2010 | 74 | 68.6% | -10.5% | +260.2% |
| May 2010 | Dec 2010 | 31 | 17.2% | +1.3% | +278.2% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 4 | 3.5% | +23.1% | +283.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 16.0% | +44.4% | +294.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.3% | +38.1% | +77.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2020 | 44 | 36.4% | +12.6% | +63.8% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 2 | 7.1% | +23.9% | +58.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 7 | 5.0% | -22.9% | +54.2% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 19 | 14.7% | -19.6% | +49.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Dec 2023 | 40 | 35.6% | +12.5% | +66.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 7 | 3.9% | +22.4% | +57.1% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 13 | 8.2% | -4.7% | +52.6% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 0.3% | +11.5% | +49.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 0.4% | +26.7% | +46.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 12.4% | +50.1% | +66.5% |
| Average | 12 | — | +14.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is USB below its 200-week moving average?
No. U.S. Bancorp (USB) is currently 41.6% above its 200-week moving average of $41.06. It would need to fall to $41.06 to cross below the line.
What is USB's 200-week moving average price?
U.S. Bancorp's 200-week moving average is $41.06 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when USB drops below its 200-week moving average?
USB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is USB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about USB as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 70. Return on equity is 12.4%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does USB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in USB would have grown to $4267, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 11.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. USB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19