UPST
Upstart Holdings Inc. Financial Services - Fintech Investor Relations →
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) closed at $38.24 as of 2026-02-02, trading 2.6% below its 200-week moving average of $39.25. This places UPST in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -0.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 220 weeks of data, UPST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 37 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -59.7%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $3.7 billion, UPST is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 4.8%. The stock trades at 5.0x book value.
Share count has increased 11.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 4.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UPST would have grown to $22, compared to $161 for the S&P 500. UPST has returned -29.3% annualized vs 11.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $3,922,800. Notably, these purchases occurred while UPST is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.8% compound annual rate, with 1 consecutive year of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: UPST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UPST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying UPST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -54.0% after 12 months (median -43.0%), compared to +6.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -73.0% vs +3.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UPST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
UPST has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +-59.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2021 | Nov 2024 | 153 | 87.7% | -89.0% | -72.5% |
| Dec 2024 | Feb 2025 | 8 | 18.3% | -30.4% | -44.1% |
| Feb 2025 | Jun 2025 | 17 | 47.8% | N/A | -42.6% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 3 | 13.4% | N/A | -0.9% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 2.6% | Ongoing | -2.6% |
| Average | 37 | — | +-59.7% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02