UPS
United Parcel Service Inc. Industrials - Logistics Investor Relations →
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) closed at $117.34 as of 2026-02-02, trading 9.5% below its 200-week moving average of $129.60. This places UPS in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -18.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 81, UPS is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1321 weeks of data, UPS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UPS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.2%.
With a market cap of $99.5 billion, UPS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.8%. Return on equity stands at 33.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.1x book value.
Over the past 25.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UPS would have grown to $398, compared to $761 for the S&P 500. UPS has returned 5.6% annualized vs 8.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $1,477,377. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while UPS is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: UPS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UPS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying UPS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.1% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to -3.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.2% vs +2.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UPS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
UPS has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +1.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2000 | Nov 2000 | 4 | 3.2% | -13.3% | +306.5% |
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 6 | 5.9% | -2.8% | +318.6% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2002 | 55 | 15.0% | -4.5% | +301.9% |
| Feb 2003 | Apr 2003 | 7 | 5.3% | +24.6% | +305.7% |
| Jul 2006 | Aug 2006 | 2 | 3.9% | +13.4% | +226.9% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 7 | 2.0% | +3.5% | +213.8% |
| May 2007 | May 2007 | 1 | 1.6% | +3.4% | +211.2% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 3 | 1.4% | -24.7% | +204.7% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 6 | 6.2% | -15.1% | +215.0% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 3 | 2.5% | -39.4% | +203.1% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -22.0% | +200.3% |
| May 2008 | Mar 2010 | 96 | 40.7% | -15.3% | +202.9% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 5.6% | +34.0% | +248.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 7 | 8.4% | +24.5% | +56.4% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 9 | 9.0% | -2.3% | +52.0% |
| Jan 2020 | Jun 2020 | 20 | 14.0% | +54.7% | +44.0% |
| Sep 2023 | Ongoing | 126+ | 41.9% | Ongoing | -17.1% |
| Average | 21 | — | +1.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02