UPBD
Upbound Group, Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Rent-to-Own Investor Relations →
Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) closed at $18.31 as of 2026-09-11, trading 21.4% below its 200-week moving average of $23.29. This places UPBD in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -18.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1602 weeks of data, UPBD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UPBD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.1%.
With a market cap of $1067 million, UPBD is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 146.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 12.7%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Share count has increased 4.1% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 30.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UPBD would have grown to $514, compared to $2031 for the S&P 500. UPBD has returned 5.5% annualized vs 10.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UPBD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UPBD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying UPBD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.7% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +11.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.6% vs +23.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UPBD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices UPBD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where UPBD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $18.31 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $19.47 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $20.78 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $22.28 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $24.01 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $1.05 | $1.07 | +2.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | $1.07 | $1.08 | +0.5% |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.97 | $1.01 | +3.8% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.98 | $1.00 | +1.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from UPBD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
UPBD has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +18.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 3 | 6.5% | +42.4% | +431.2% |
| Feb 1997 | May 1997 | 13 | 17.1% | +42.4% | +431.2% |
| Jun 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 0.2% | +2.9% | +263.4% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 5 | 17.3% | +43.1% | +332.3% |
| Sep 1999 | Jun 2000 | 37 | 33.4% | +65.9% | +282.2% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2001 | 11 | 28.8% | +102.4% | +190.2% |
| May 2005 | Mar 2006 | 46 | 35.0% | +16.0% | +34.7% |
| May 2006 | Jul 2006 | 9 | 11.6% | +8.6% | +27.0% |
| Jun 2007 | Jul 2007 | 4 | 1.2% | -19.3% | +18.1% |
| Jul 2007 | Jul 2008 | 52 | 49.5% | -7.1% | +21.1% |
| Jul 2008 | Sep 2008 | 7 | 8.2% | -2.5% | +47.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2010 | 70 | 42.4% | -9.2% | +52.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 4.8% | +55.4% | +54.3% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 3.5% | +17.8% | +53.8% |
| Jan 2014 | Nov 2014 | 40 | 23.7% | +41.7% | +17.4% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 0.3% | -49.0% | -8.7% |
| Feb 2015 | May 2015 | 13 | 17.4% | -61.0% | -3.8% |
| May 2015 | Dec 2018 | 186 | 65.5% | -55.7% | -6.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 17.5% | +365.8% | +87.7% |
| Feb 2022 | May 2023 | 62 | 44.5% | -2.7% | -18.3% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.5% | +4.3% | -28.4% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 3 | 1.8% | +6.7% | -28.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 17 | 19.5% | +7.8% | -29.7% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 4 | 5.1% | -29.8% | -32.5% |
| May 2024 | May 2024 | 1 | 5.0% | -22.1% | -31.3% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 5 | 8.7% | -17.6% | -32.0% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 3.0% | -29.0% | -34.8% |
| Sep 2024 | Nov 2024 | 11 | 17.0% | -12.3% | -31.5% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 92+ | 32.8% | Ongoing | -34.9% |
| Average | 24 | — | +18.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPBD below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) is trading 21.4% below its 200-week moving average of $23.29. The current price is $18.31.
What is UPBD's 200-week moving average price?
Upbound Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $23.29 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UPBD drops below its 200-week moving average?
UPBD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is UPBD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UPBD as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 146.9%. Return on equity is 12.7%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UPBD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.8 years, $100 invested in UPBD would have grown to $514, compared to $2031 for the S&P 500. That's 5.5% annualized vs 10.3% for the index. UPBD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does UPBD pay a dividend?
Yes. Upbound Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 852.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11