UPBD
Upbound Group, Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Rent-to-Own Investor Relations →
Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) closed at $19.39 as of 2026-07-31, trading 16.4% below its 200-week moving average of $23.20. This places UPBD in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -11.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1596 weeks of data, UPBD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UPBD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.1%.
With a market cap of $1130 million, UPBD is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 12.7%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Share count has increased 4.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 30.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UPBD would have grown to $544, compared to $1986 for the S&P 500. UPBD has returned 5.7% annualized vs 10.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UPBD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UPBD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying UPBD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.7% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +11.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.5% vs +22.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UPBD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices UPBD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where UPBD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $16.56 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $17.53 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $18.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $19.87 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $21.29 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from UPBD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
UPBD has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +18.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 3 | 6.5% | +42.4% | +462.6% |
| Feb 1997 | May 1997 | 13 | 17.1% | +42.4% | +462.6% |
| Jun 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 0.2% | +2.9% | +284.8% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 5 | 17.3% | +43.1% | +357.8% |
| Sep 1999 | Jun 2000 | 37 | 33.4% | +65.9% | +304.8% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2001 | 11 | 28.8% | +102.4% | +207.3% |
| May 2005 | Mar 2006 | 46 | 35.0% | +16.0% | +42.6% |
| May 2006 | Jul 2006 | 9 | 11.6% | +8.6% | +34.5% |
| Jun 2007 | Jul 2007 | 4 | 1.2% | -19.3% | +25.1% |
| Jul 2007 | Jul 2008 | 52 | 49.5% | -7.1% | +28.2% |
| Jul 2008 | Sep 2008 | 7 | 8.2% | -2.5% | +55.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2010 | 70 | 42.4% | -9.2% | +61.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 4.8% | +55.4% | +63.4% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 3.5% | +17.8% | +62.8% |
| Jan 2014 | Nov 2014 | 40 | 23.7% | +41.7% | +24.4% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 0.3% | -49.0% | -3.3% |
| Feb 2015 | May 2015 | 13 | 17.4% | -61.0% | +1.8% |
| May 2015 | Dec 2018 | 186 | 65.5% | -55.7% | -1.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 17.5% | +365.8% | +98.8% |
| Feb 2022 | May 2023 | 62 | 44.5% | -2.7% | -13.5% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.5% | +4.3% | -24.1% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 3 | 1.8% | +6.7% | -23.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 17 | 19.5% | +7.8% | -25.6% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 4 | 5.1% | -29.8% | -28.5% |
| May 2024 | May 2024 | 1 | 5.0% | -22.1% | -27.3% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 5 | 8.7% | -17.6% | -28.0% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 3.0% | -29.0% | -31.0% |
| Sep 2024 | Nov 2024 | 11 | 17.0% | -12.3% | -27.4% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 86+ | 32.8% | Ongoing | -31.0% |
| Average | 24 | — | +18.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPBD below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) is trading 16.4% below its 200-week moving average of $23.20. The current price is $19.39.
What is UPBD's 200-week moving average price?
Upbound Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $23.20 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UPBD drops below its 200-week moving average?
UPBD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is UPBD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UPBD as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 50. Return on equity is 12.7%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UPBD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.6 years, $100 invested in UPBD would have grown to $544, compared to $1986 for the S&P 500. That's 5.7% annualized vs 10.3% for the index. UPBD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does UPBD pay a dividend?
Yes. Upbound Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 804.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31