UNP
Union Pacific Corporation Industrials - Railroads Investor Relations →
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) closed at $266.32 as of 2026-05-01, trading 22.4% above its 200-week moving average of $217.50. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 23.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 69, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2369 weeks of data, UNP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UNP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.0%.
With a market cap of $158.1 billion, UNP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.5%. Return on equity stands at 40.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.6x book value.
Over the past 33.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UNP would have grown to $5208, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.6% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming UNP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UNP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UNP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying UNP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.1% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 89% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +57.4% vs +34.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UNP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
UNP has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +17.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1981 | Jun 1981 | 3 | 4.2% | -30.7% | +17536.1% |
| Jun 1981 | Jul 1981 | 1 | 2.4% | -37.5% | +17193.6% |
| Aug 1981 | Nov 1981 | 13 | 14.2% | -25.8% | +17565.9% |
| Dec 1981 | Jan 1983 | 55 | 39.6% | -14.3% | +16891.6% |
| Jan 1983 | Feb 1983 | 1 | 1.6% | +10.7% | +18666.6% |
| Feb 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 0.6% | +3.5% | +18467.0% |
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 1.1% | -1.5% | +18540.8% |
| Dec 1983 | Dec 1983 | 1 | 2.0% | -11.0% | +17934.1% |
| Jan 1984 | Jan 1985 | 50 | 25.8% | +6.6% | +18031.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Oct 1987 | 2 | 8.4% | +20.5% | +14501.4% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 2 | 4.3% | +27.9% | +14796.4% |
| Oct 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 0.1% | +55.4% | +10219.0% |
| Oct 1994 | Feb 1995 | 19 | 11.6% | +30.4% | +5893.0% |
| Feb 1995 | Mar 1995 | 2 | 1.5% | +36.3% | +5649.3% |
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 1 | 0.3% | +38.9% | +5546.2% |
| May 1998 | Jan 1999 | 34 | 21.6% | +25.2% | +3856.6% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 4 | 7.1% | -20.4% | +3632.6% |
| Aug 1999 | Oct 1999 | 9 | 9.6% | -18.3% | +3449.2% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 2000 | 57 | 32.1% | +0.8% | +3570.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 4.9% | +30.0% | +3664.2% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 5 | 1.4% | +24.8% | +2871.8% |
| Nov 2008 | May 2009 | 27 | 32.8% | +42.3% | +1533.0% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 3 | 3.3% | +58.7% | +1446.5% |
| Dec 2015 | Apr 2016 | 20 | 16.2% | +36.5% | +333.3% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 3.0% | +39.0% | +305.5% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 2.0% | +34.0% | +300.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 12.2% | +73.4% | +143.0% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 2.2% | +31.9% | +50.4% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.5% | +23.0% | +47.8% |
| Apr 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 3.2% | +19.7% | +29.8% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | N/A | +24.5% |
| Average | 11 | — | +17.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is currently 22.4% above its 200-week moving average of $217.50. It would need to fall to $217.50 to cross below the line.
What is UNP's 200-week moving average price?
Union Pacific Corporation's 200-week moving average is $217.50 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UNP drops below its 200-week moving average?
UNP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is UNP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UNP as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 69. Free cash flow yield is 2.5%. Return on equity is 40.7%. Price-to-book is 8.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UNP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.3 years, $100 invested in UNP would have grown to $5208, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That's 12.6% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. UNP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does UNP pay a dividend?
Yes. Union Pacific Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 207.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01