UNP
Union Pacific Corporation Industrials - Railroads Investor Relations →
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) closed at $252.62 as of 2026-02-03, trading 17.2% above its 200-week moving average of $215.59. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 9.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, UNP is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2357 weeks of data, UNP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UNP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.9%.
With a market cap of $149.8 billion, UNP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 40.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UNP would have grown to $4914, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.5% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming UNP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: UNP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UNP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying UNP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.0% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +19.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +57.4% vs +34.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UNP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
UNP has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +16.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1981 | Jun 1981 | 3 | 4.2% | -30.7% | +16541.9% |
| Jun 1981 | Jul 1981 | 1 | 2.4% | -37.5% | +16218.7% |
| Aug 1981 | Nov 1981 | 13 | 14.2% | -25.8% | +16570.0% |
| Dec 1981 | Jan 1983 | 55 | 39.6% | -14.3% | +15933.7% |
| Jan 1983 | Feb 1983 | 1 | 1.6% | +10.7% | +17608.7% |
| Feb 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 0.6% | +3.5% | +17420.3% |
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 1.1% | -1.5% | +17489.9% |
| Dec 1983 | Dec 1983 | 1 | 2.0% | -11.0% | +16917.4% |
| Jan 1984 | Jan 1985 | 50 | 25.8% | +6.6% | +17008.9% |
| Oct 1987 | Oct 1987 | 2 | 8.4% | +20.5% | +13678.3% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 2 | 4.3% | +27.9% | +13956.6% |
| Oct 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 0.1% | +55.4% | +9637.3% |
| Oct 1994 | Feb 1995 | 19 | 11.6% | +30.4% | +5555.1% |
| Feb 1995 | Mar 1995 | 2 | 1.5% | +36.3% | +5325.2% |
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 1 | 0.3% | +38.9% | +5227.9% |
| May 1998 | Jan 1999 | 34 | 21.6% | +25.2% | +3633.5% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 4 | 7.1% | -20.4% | +3422.2% |
| Aug 1999 | Oct 1999 | 9 | 9.6% | -18.3% | +3249.1% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 2000 | 57 | 32.1% | +0.8% | +3363.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 4.9% | +30.0% | +3452.0% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 5 | 1.4% | +24.8% | +2704.3% |
| Nov 2008 | May 2009 | 27 | 32.8% | +42.3% | +1441.0% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 3 | 3.3% | +58.7% | +1359.3% |
| Dec 2015 | Apr 2016 | 20 | 16.2% | +36.5% | +308.9% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 3.0% | +39.0% | +282.7% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 2.0% | +34.0% | +278.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 12.2% | +73.4% | +129.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 2.2% | +31.9% | +41.9% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.5% | +23.0% | +39.4% |
| Apr 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 3.2% | N/A | +22.5% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | N/A | +17.5% |
| Average | 11 | — | +16.9% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-03