ULTA
Ulta Beauty Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) closed at $690.37 as of 2026-02-02, trading 53.7% above its 200-week moving average of $449.13. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 44.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 79, ULTA is in overbought territory.
Over the past 906 weeks of data, ULTA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ULTA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.2%.
With a market cap of $31.0 billion, ULTA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 48.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 11.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 17.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ULTA would have grown to $5741, compared to $823 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 26.0% vs 12.8% for the index — confirming ULTA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: ULTA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ULTA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying ULTA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.5% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +69.5% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ULTA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ULTA has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +31.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 48 | 66.6% | +29.5% | +5640.9% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +62.5% | +255.9% |
| Aug 2019 | Jan 2020 | 19 | 11.3% | -0.3% | +190.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 43.9% | +25.4% | +168.5% |
| May 2024 | Dec 2024 | 28 | 19.9% | +6.6% | +80.8% |
| Jan 2025 | May 2025 | 19 | 15.9% | +63.8% | +70.5% |
| Average | 25 | — | +31.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02