ULTA
Ulta Beauty Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) closed at $529.97 as of 2026-03-20, trading 16.2% above its 200-week moving average of $456.21. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 17.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.4x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 912 weeks of data, ULTA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ULTA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.2%.
With a market cap of $23.8 billion, ULTA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.8%. Return on equity stands at 43.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 17.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ULTA would have grown to $4407, compared to $775 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 24.0% vs 12.4% for the index — confirming ULTA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ULTA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ULTA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying ULTA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.5% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +69.5% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ULTA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ULTA has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +31.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 48 | 66.6% | +29.5% | +4307.1% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +62.5% | +173.2% |
| Aug 2019 | Jan 2020 | 19 | 11.3% | -0.3% | +122.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 43.9% | +25.4% | +106.1% |
| May 2024 | Dec 2024 | 28 | 19.9% | +6.6% | +38.8% |
| Jan 2025 | May 2025 | 19 | 15.9% | +63.8% | +30.9% |
| Average | 25 | — | +31.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ULTA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) is currently 16.2% above its 200-week moving average of $456.21. It would need to fall to $456.21 to cross below the line.
What is ULTA's 200-week moving average price?
Ulta Beauty Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $456.21 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ULTA drops below its 200-week moving average?
ULTA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is ULTA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ULTA as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. Free cash flow yield is 3.8%. Return on equity is 43.6%. Price-to-book is 8.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ULTA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.6 years, $100 invested in ULTA would have grown to $4407, compared to $775 for the S&P 500. That's 24.0% annualized vs 12.4% for the index. ULTA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20