UFPI
UFP Industries, Inc. Industrials - Wood & Wood-Alternative Products Investor Relations →
UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) closed at $86.58 as of 2026-06-19, trading 12.3% below its 200-week moving average of $98.71. This places UFPI in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -14.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1653 weeks of data, UFPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UFPI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
With a market cap of $4.9 billion, UFPI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.2%. Return on equity stands at 8.4%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 31.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UFPI would have grown to $4725, compared to $2744 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.9% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming UFPI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -25.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UFPI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UFPI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying UFPI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.7% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +11.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +56.5% vs +21.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UFPI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices UFPI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where UFPI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $76.57 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $83.55 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $91.93 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $102.18 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $115.00 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from UFPI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
UFPI has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1994 | Jun 1995 | 33 | 24.0% | +25.5% | +4310.1% |
| Sep 1999 | Jul 2000 | 40 | 26.4% | -18.0% | +2231.0% |
| Jul 2000 | Apr 2001 | 41 | 30.4% | +60.5% | +2306.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 2 | 10.3% | +24.4% | +2019.2% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 2 | 2.6% | +67.6% | +1816.0% |
| Feb 2003 | Apr 2003 | 10 | 11.4% | +87.0% | +1775.9% |
| Jun 2007 | Jul 2009 | 107 | 63.6% | -26.2% | +650.7% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 1 | 3.0% | -27.3% | +697.8% |
| Sep 2009 | Mar 2010 | 26 | 12.6% | -26.1% | +690.7% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 28 | 20.4% | -18.5% | +768.2% |
| Apr 2011 | Jan 2012 | 39 | 23.4% | +2.7% | +874.1% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 2.2% | +37.2% | +898.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 14 | 11.3% | +82.8% | +240.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 1.7% | +6.9% | +222.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 10.5% | +130.5% | +201.7% |
| Sep 2025 | Jan 2026 | 16 | 7.7% | N/A | -8.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 16+ | 19.3% | Ongoing | -7.1% |
| Average | 22 | — | +27.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UFPI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) is trading 12.3% below its 200-week moving average of $98.71. The current price is $86.58.
What is UFPI's 200-week moving average price?
UFP Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $98.71 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UFPI drops below its 200-week moving average?
UFPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is UFPI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UFPI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow yield is 3.2%. Return on equity is 8.4%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UFPI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.8 years, $100 invested in UFPI would have grown to $4725, compared to $2744 for the S&P 500. That's 12.9% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. UFPI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does UFPI pay a dividend?
Yes. UFP Industries, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 167.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19