UFPI
UFP Industries, Inc. Industrials - Wood & Wood-Alternative Products Investor Relations →
UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) closed at $80.56 as of 2026-09-11, trading 18.9% below its 200-week moving average of $99.35. This places UFPI in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -15.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.28 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1665 weeks of data, UFPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UFPI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
With a market cap of $4.4 billion, UFPI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.6%. Return on equity stands at 8.0%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 32 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UFPI would have grown to $4415, compared to $2809 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.6% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming UFPI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -25.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UFPI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UFPI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying UFPI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.4% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +56.5% vs +21.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UFPI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices UFPI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where UFPI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-26.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $76.22 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $80.60 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $85.52 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $91.08 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $97.41 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $1.41 | $1.48 | +5.2% |
| 2026-04-29 | $1.10 | $0.89 | -19.2% |
| 2026-02-23 | $1.05 | $0.70 | -33.1% |
| 2025-10-29 | $1.39 | $1.29 | -6.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from UFPI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
UFPI has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1994 | Jun 1995 | 33 | 24.0% | +25.5% | +4021.0% |
| Sep 1999 | Jul 2000 | 40 | 26.4% | -18.0% | +2078.2% |
| Jul 2000 | Apr 2001 | 41 | 30.4% | +60.5% | +2148.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 2 | 10.3% | +24.4% | +1880.3% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 2 | 2.6% | +67.6% | +1690.4% |
| Feb 2003 | Apr 2003 | 10 | 11.4% | +87.0% | +1653.0% |
| Jun 2007 | Jul 2009 | 107 | 63.6% | -26.2% | +601.5% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 1 | 3.0% | -27.3% | +645.5% |
| Sep 2009 | Mar 2010 | 26 | 12.4% | -26.1% | +638.9% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 28 | 20.5% | -18.5% | +711.3% |
| Apr 2011 | Jan 2012 | 39 | 23.4% | +2.7% | +810.3% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 2.2% | +37.2% | +833.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 14 | 11.3% | +82.8% | +218.2% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 1.7% | +6.9% | +201.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 10.5% | +130.5% | +181.9% |
| Sep 2025 | Jan 2026 | 16 | 7.7% | N/A | -14.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 28+ | 19.4% | Ongoing | -13.5% |
| Average | 23 | — | +27.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UFPI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) is trading 18.9% below its 200-week moving average of $99.35. The current price is $80.56.
What is UFPI's 200-week moving average price?
UFP Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $99.35 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UFPI drops below its 200-week moving average?
UFPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is UFPI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UFPI as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 51. Free cash flow yield is 2.6%. Return on equity is 8.0%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UFPI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32 years, $100 invested in UFPI would have grown to $4415, compared to $2809 for the S&P 500. That's 12.6% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. UFPI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does UFPI pay a dividend?
Yes. UFP Industries, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 179.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11