UDR
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UDR, Inc. (UDR) closed at $33.90 as of 2026-09-18, trading 6.5% below its 200-week moving average of $36.26. This places UDR in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, UDR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UDR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.9%.
With a market cap of $12.5 billion, UDR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 13.7%. The stock trades at 3.8x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UDR would have grown to $1596, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. UDR has returned 8.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 1.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UDR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UDR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying UDR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.3% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +13.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.8% vs +17.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UDR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices UDR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where UDR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $33.82 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $37.11 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $41.12 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $46.09 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $52.43 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | $0.13 | $0.21 | +61.0% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.13 | $0.48 | +269.7% |
| 2026-02-09 | $0.16 | $0.67 | +331.6% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.13 | $0.12 | -6.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from UDR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
UDR has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +13.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1990 | May 1990 | 2 | 3.5% | +28.7% | +3149.9% |
| Jul 1990 | Jan 1991 | 26 | 14.9% | +24.7% | +3087.9% |
| Feb 1991 | Feb 1991 | 1 | 0.7% | +59.1% | +3008.8% |
| Aug 1998 | Jun 1999 | 47 | 20.4% | +1.5% | +1148.9% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 4 | 3.4% | +12.9% | +1096.4% |
| Aug 1999 | May 2000 | 35 | 15.8% | +6.8% | +1103.0% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 1.7% | +43.1% | +1116.4% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 1.0% | +50.9% | +1095.6% |
| Oct 2000 | Dec 2000 | 5 | 4.9% | +60.2% | +1140.1% |
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2008 | 21 | 16.0% | -15.7% | +243.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 4.0% | -46.6% | +236.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 76 | 65.3% | -26.4% | +216.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 16.7% | +40.8% | +36.8% |
| Apr 2020 | Jun 2020 | 6 | 8.0% | +33.9% | +19.5% |
| Jun 2020 | Nov 2020 | 21 | 16.9% | +32.7% | +14.8% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 4 | 2.1% | +61.6% | +14.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 19 | 12.6% | -11.0% | -4.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | 13 | 9.7% | -0.4% | -1.0% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 5.3% | +5.8% | -2.8% |
| Jul 2023 | Jun 2024 | 47 | 23.5% | +7.2% | -3.7% |
| Jul 2024 | Jul 2024 | 1 | 0.2% | +4.3% | -8.2% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 0.1% | -0.7% | -8.7% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 3 | 2.2% | -5.1% | -9.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 3.1% | -10.4% | -10.2% |
| May 2025 | May 2025 | 1 | 2.9% | +0.9% | -9.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Jan 2026 | 24 | 13.0% | +2.7% | -8.1% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 0.9% | N/A | -6.5% |
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 0.3% | N/A | -6.6% |
| Mar 2026 | May 2026 | 8 | 9.6% | N/A | -1.9% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 6.5% | Ongoing | -6.4% |
| Average | 13 | — | +13.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UDR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, UDR, Inc. (UDR) is trading 6.5% below its 200-week moving average of $36.26. The current price is $33.90.
What is UDR's 200-week moving average price?
UDR, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $36.26 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UDR drops below its 200-week moving average?
UDR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is UDR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UDR as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow yield is 6.3%. Return on equity is 13.7%. Price-to-book is 3.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UDR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in UDR would have grown to $1596, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 8.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. UDR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does UDR pay a dividend?
Yes. UDR, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 510.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18