TYL
Tyler Technologies, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) closed at $278.91 as of 2026-06-19, trading 38.0% below its 200-week moving average of $450.09. This places TYL in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -33.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, TYL is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.74 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, TYL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TYL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +42.5%.
With a market cap of $11.5 billion, TYL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.8%. Return on equity stands at 8.9%. The stock trades at 3.3x book value.
Share count has increased 3.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TYL would have grown to $5721, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TYL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TYL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TYL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying TYL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.9% after 12 months (median +40.0%), compared to +16.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 72% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.0% vs +30.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TYL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TYL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TYL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $261.29 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $281.74 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $305.67 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $334.04 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $368.21 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TYL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TYL has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +42.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1982 | Oct 1982 | 32 | 34.5% | +24.0% | +22478.1% |
| Dec 1982 | Dec 1982 | 3 | 2.8% | +63.2% | +23418.8% |
| Jul 1986 | Feb 1987 | 30 | 15.8% | +8.1% | +15294.1% |
| Feb 1987 | Jul 1987 | 20 | 12.7% | -6.9% | +15456.2% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 24 | 30.8% | +18.7% | +15084.9% |
| Apr 1988 | May 1988 | 3 | 4.7% | +70.3% | +15639.5% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 1 | 44.8% | +72.8% | +26976.1% |
| Aug 1989 | Dec 1989 | 15 | 17.2% | +68.5% | +15568.8% |
| Oct 1994 | Sep 1997 | 152 | 64.1% | -12.5% | +6872.8% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 3.5% | +93.9% | +6661.5% |
| Sep 1999 | Dec 1999 | 13 | 22.6% | -55.6% | +6098.0% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 5 | 19.3% | -61.3% | +5850.1% |
| May 2000 | Mar 2002 | 96 | 75.5% | -60.4% | +6098.0% |
| Aug 2002 | Sep 2002 | 3 | 24.8% | +59.3% | +7778.8% |
| Nov 2002 | Nov 2002 | 1 | 0.1% | +104.3% | +6978.9% |
| Jan 2003 | Jan 2003 | 1 | 0.4% | +153.9% | +7088.4% |
| Feb 2003 | Apr 2003 | 8 | 6.9% | +146.3% | +7278.6% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 3 | 5.6% | +90.8% | +4725.4% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 1.0% | +59.3% | +2304.4% |
| Dec 2008 | Jan 2009 | 3 | 5.1% | +75.9% | +2357.4% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.3% | -18.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 9.8% | +15.2% | -17.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Apr 2023 | 31 | 19.9% | +13.9% | -18.2% |
| Jul 2023 | Aug 2023 | 4 | 3.7% | +50.8% | -27.0% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 7 | 7.1% | +55.0% | -25.7% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 0.1% | +41.4% | -30.9% |
| Dec 2025 | Ongoing | 25+ | 38.0% | Ongoing | -36.0% |
| Average | 18 | — | +42.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TYL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) is trading 38.0% below its 200-week moving average of $450.09. The current price is $278.91.
What is TYL's 200-week moving average price?
Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $450.09 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TYL drops below its 200-week moving average?
TYL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +42.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is TYL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TYL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 23 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 4.8%. Return on equity is 8.9%. Price-to-book is 3.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TYL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in TYL would have grown to $5721, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 12.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TYL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19