TXT
Textron Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
Textron Inc. (TXT) closed at $85.26 as of 2026-07-31, trading 6.2% above its 200-week moving average of $80.27. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 19.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2740 weeks of data, TXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TXT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.5%.
With a market cap of $14.7 billion, TXT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 12.1%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TXT would have grown to $1188, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. TXT has returned 7.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $990,389.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -6.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TXT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TXT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying TXT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -6.0% after 12 months (median -17.0%), compared to +11.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.9% vs +34.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TXT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TXT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TXT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $85.78 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $89.25 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $93.01 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $97.10 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $101.57 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TXT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TXT has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +8.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Mar 1974 | 5 | 5.0% | -31.7% | +6620.3% |
| Mar 1974 | Mar 1975 | 50 | 43.3% | -6.4% | +6387.3% |
| Apr 1975 | Apr 1975 | 1 | 0.7% | +35.9% | +7235.3% |
| Dec 1978 | Jan 1979 | 7 | 2.7% | -1.0% | +5348.0% |
| Feb 1979 | Mar 1979 | 6 | 8.3% | +8.2% | +5321.7% |
| Apr 1979 | Jun 1979 | 10 | 3.7% | -14.3% | +5244.3% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 1 | 3.7% | +7.8% | +5348.0% |
| Aug 1979 | Aug 1979 | 1 | 0.3% | +4.2% | +5144.4% |
| Oct 1979 | Dec 1979 | 12 | 11.1% | +6.1% | +5193.9% |
| Mar 1980 | Jul 1980 | 21 | 19.6% | +6.4% | +5048.2% |
| Aug 1980 | Sep 1980 | 3 | 2.3% | +10.8% | +5193.9% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 3 | 4.7% | +0.9% | +5144.4% |
| Aug 1981 | Nov 1982 | 61 | 35.2% | -20.6% | +5144.4% |
| Nov 1982 | Feb 1983 | 12 | 10.8% | +27.7% | +5169.0% |
| Feb 1983 | Mar 1983 | 3 | 3.2% | +11.1% | +5321.7% |
| Apr 1983 | Apr 1983 | 1 | 0.8% | +13.7% | +5218.9% |
| Mar 1984 | Mar 1984 | 3 | 6.7% | +59.3% | +5244.3% |
| May 1984 | Jun 1984 | 5 | 6.1% | +97.3% | +5169.0% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 0.1% | +105.0% | +4844.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 22 | 17.3% | +26.0% | +2872.9% |
| Apr 1988 | Apr 1988 | 1 | 0.5% | +19.1% | +2446.3% |
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 4 | 6.7% | +13.1% | +2420.3% |
| Jun 1988 | Sep 1988 | 14 | 8.6% | +18.6% | +2445.9% |
| Oct 1988 | Jan 1989 | 14 | 9.1% | +4.4% | +2368.5% |
| Oct 1989 | Nov 1990 | 59 | 19.5% | -11.0% | +2276.9% |
| Jan 2000 | Oct 2003 | 195 | 45.8% | -17.5% | +270.0% |
| Jul 2008 | Jan 2012 | 184 | 91.1% | -74.8% | +118.1% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 7 | 7.0% | +39.9% | +152.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 6.1% | -0.5% | +89.2% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 8.0% | -50.6% | +75.3% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 13.5% | -31.8% | +75.0% |
| Sep 2019 | Feb 2021 | 72 | 56.1% | -28.2% | +74.8% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 2 | 3.0% | +35.8% | +18.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 12 | 18.7% | +24.5% | +16.6% |
| Average | 24 | — | +8.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Textron Inc. (TXT) is currently 6.2% above its 200-week moving average of $80.27. It would need to fall to $80.27 to cross below the line.
What is TXT's 200-week moving average price?
Textron Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $80.27 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TXT drops below its 200-week moving average?
TXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is TXT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TXT as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 3.1%. Return on equity is 12.1%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TXT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in TXT would have grown to $1188, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 7.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TXT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TXT pay a dividend?
Yes. Textron Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 9.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31