TXT
Textron Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
Textron Inc. (TXT) closed at $94.72 as of 2026-05-01, trading 20.7% above its 200-week moving average of $78.47. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 12.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2727 weeks of data, TXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TXT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.5%.
With a market cap of $16.5 billion, TXT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 12.3%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TXT would have grown to $1319, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. TXT has returned 8.0% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -6.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TXT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TXT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying TXT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -6.0% after 12 months (median -17.0%), compared to +11.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.9% vs +34.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TXT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TXT has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +8.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Mar 1974 | 5 | 5.0% | -31.7% | +7364.4% |
| Mar 1974 | Mar 1975 | 50 | 43.3% | -6.4% | +7105.5% |
| Apr 1975 | Apr 1975 | 1 | 0.7% | +35.9% | +8047.4% |
| Dec 1978 | Jan 1979 | 7 | 2.7% | -1.0% | +5951.2% |
| Feb 1979 | Mar 1979 | 6 | 8.3% | +8.2% | +5922.0% |
| Apr 1979 | Jun 1979 | 10 | 3.7% | -14.3% | +5836.0% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 1 | 3.7% | +7.8% | +5951.2% |
| Aug 1979 | Aug 1979 | 1 | 0.3% | +4.2% | +5725.0% |
| Oct 1979 | Dec 1979 | 12 | 11.1% | +6.1% | +5780.0% |
| Mar 1980 | Jul 1980 | 21 | 19.6% | +6.4% | +5618.1% |
| Aug 1980 | Sep 1980 | 3 | 2.3% | +10.8% | +5780.0% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 3 | 4.7% | +0.9% | +5725.0% |
| Aug 1981 | Nov 1982 | 61 | 35.2% | -20.6% | +5725.0% |
| Nov 1982 | Feb 1983 | 12 | 10.8% | +27.7% | +5752.4% |
| Feb 1983 | Mar 1983 | 3 | 3.2% | +11.1% | +5922.0% |
| Apr 1983 | Apr 1983 | 1 | 0.8% | +13.7% | +5807.8% |
| Mar 1984 | Mar 1984 | 3 | 6.7% | +59.3% | +5836.0% |
| May 1984 | Jun 1984 | 5 | 6.1% | +97.3% | +5752.4% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 0.1% | +105.0% | +5391.4% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 22 | 18.3% | +26.0% | +3202.1% |
| Apr 1988 | Apr 1988 | 1 | 0.4% | +19.1% | +2728.2% |
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 4 | 6.7% | +13.1% | +2699.4% |
| Jun 1988 | Sep 1988 | 14 | 8.5% | +18.6% | +2727.8% |
| Oct 1988 | Jan 1989 | 14 | 9.0% | +4.4% | +2641.8% |
| Oct 1989 | Nov 1990 | 59 | 19.4% | -11.0% | +2540.1% |
| Jan 2000 | Oct 2003 | 195 | 45.8% | -17.5% | +311.0% |
| Jul 2008 | Jan 2012 | 184 | 91.1% | -74.8% | +142.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 7 | 7.0% | +39.9% | +180.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 6.1% | -0.5% | +110.1% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 8.0% | -50.6% | +94.7% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 13.5% | -31.8% | +94.4% |
| Sep 2019 | Feb 2021 | 72 | 56.1% | -28.2% | +94.1% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 2 | 3.0% | +35.8% | +31.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 12 | 18.7% | +24.5% | +29.6% |
| Average | 24 | — | +8.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Textron Inc. (TXT) is currently 20.7% above its 200-week moving average of $78.47. It would need to fall to $78.47 to cross below the line.
What is TXT's 200-week moving average price?
Textron Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $78.47 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TXT drops below its 200-week moving average?
TXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is TXT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TXT as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow yield is 8.2%. Return on equity is 12.3%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TXT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.3 years, $100 invested in TXT would have grown to $1319, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That's 8.0% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. TXT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TXT pay a dividend?
Yes. Textron Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 8.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01