TXT
Textron Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
Textron Inc. (TXT) closed at $79.69 as of 2026-09-18, trading 1.5% below its 200-week moving average of $80.87. This places TXT in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 0.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.80 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, TXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TXT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.5%.
With a market cap of $13.7 billion, TXT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Return on equity stands at 12.1%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TXT would have grown to $1110, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. TXT has returned 7.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $990,389. Notably, these purchases occurred while TXT is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -6.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TXT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TXT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying TXT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -6.0% after 12 months (median -17.0%), compared to +11.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.9% vs +34.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TXT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TXT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TXT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $79.46 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $84.95 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $91.26 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $98.59 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $107.19 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.55 | $1.62 | +4.8% |
| 2026-04-30 | $1.30 | $1.45 | +11.3% |
| 2026-01-28 | $1.70 | $1.73 | +1.5% |
| 2025-10-23 | $1.46 | $1.55 | +6.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TXT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TXT has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +8.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Mar 1974 | 5 | 5.0% | -31.7% | +6182.9% |
| Mar 1974 | Mar 1975 | 50 | 43.3% | -6.4% | +5965.0% |
| Apr 1975 | Apr 1975 | 1 | 0.7% | +35.9% | +6757.8% |
| Dec 1978 | Jan 1979 | 7 | 2.7% | -1.0% | +4993.4% |
| Feb 1979 | Mar 1979 | 6 | 8.3% | +8.2% | +4968.8% |
| Apr 1979 | Jun 1979 | 10 | 3.7% | -14.3% | +4896.4% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 1 | 3.7% | +7.8% | +4993.4% |
| Aug 1979 | Aug 1979 | 1 | 0.3% | +4.2% | +4803.0% |
| Oct 1979 | Dec 1979 | 12 | 11.1% | +6.1% | +4849.3% |
| Mar 1980 | Jul 1980 | 21 | 19.6% | +6.4% | +4713.0% |
| Aug 1980 | Sep 1980 | 3 | 2.3% | +10.8% | +4849.3% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 3 | 4.7% | +0.9% | +4803.0% |
| Aug 1981 | Nov 1982 | 61 | 35.2% | -20.6% | +4803.0% |
| Nov 1982 | Feb 1983 | 12 | 10.8% | +27.7% | +4826.0% |
| Feb 1983 | Mar 1983 | 3 | 3.2% | +11.1% | +4968.8% |
| Apr 1983 | Apr 1983 | 1 | 0.8% | +13.7% | +4872.7% |
| Mar 1984 | Mar 1984 | 3 | 6.7% | +59.3% | +4896.4% |
| May 1984 | Jun 1984 | 5 | 6.1% | +97.3% | +4826.0% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 0.1% | +105.0% | +4522.2% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 22 | 17.3% | +26.0% | +2679.4% |
| Apr 1988 | Apr 1988 | 1 | 0.5% | +19.1% | +2280.6% |
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 4 | 6.7% | +13.1% | +2256.3% |
| Jun 1988 | Sep 1988 | 14 | 8.6% | +18.6% | +2280.2% |
| Oct 1988 | Jan 1989 | 14 | 9.1% | +4.4% | +2207.8% |
| Oct 1989 | Nov 1990 | 59 | 19.5% | -11.0% | +2122.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Oct 2003 | 195 | 45.8% | -17.5% | +245.9% |
| Jul 2008 | Jan 2012 | 184 | 91.1% | -74.8% | +103.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 7 | 7.0% | +39.9% | +136.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 6.1% | -0.5% | +76.8% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 8.0% | -50.6% | +63.9% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 13.5% | -31.8% | +63.7% |
| Sep 2019 | Feb 2021 | 72 | 56.1% | -28.2% | +63.4% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 2 | 3.0% | +35.8% | +10.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 12 | 18.7% | +24.5% | +9.0% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 2.1% | Ongoing | +0.8% |
| Average | 23 | — | +8.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Textron Inc. (TXT) is trading 1.5% below its 200-week moving average of $80.87. The current price is $79.69.
What is TXT's 200-week moving average price?
Textron Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $80.87 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TXT drops below its 200-week moving average?
TXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is TXT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TXT as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 3.3%. Return on equity is 12.1%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TXT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in TXT would have grown to $1110, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 7.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TXT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TXT pay a dividend?
Yes. Textron Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 10.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18