TXT
Textron Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
Textron Inc. (TXT) closed at $95.44 as of 2026-02-02, trading 24.3% above its 200-week moving average of $76.78. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 70, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2715 weeks of data, TXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TXT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.1%.
With a market cap of $17.0 billion, TXT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 12.2%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TXT would have grown to $1329, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. TXT has returned 8.1% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -19% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: TXT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TXT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying TXT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -12.9% after 12 months (median -17.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 25% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.9% vs +34.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TXT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TXT has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +7.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Mar 1974 | 5 | 5.0% | -31.7% | +7419.5% |
| Mar 1974 | Mar 1975 | 50 | 43.3% | -6.4% | +7158.7% |
| Apr 1975 | Apr 1975 | 1 | 0.7% | +35.9% | +8107.6% |
| Dec 1978 | Jan 1979 | 7 | 2.7% | -1.0% | +5995.9% |
| Feb 1979 | Mar 1979 | 6 | 8.3% | +8.2% | +5966.5% |
| Apr 1979 | Jun 1979 | 10 | 3.7% | -14.3% | +5879.8% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 1 | 3.7% | +7.8% | +5995.9% |
| Aug 1979 | Aug 1979 | 1 | 0.3% | +4.2% | +5768.0% |
| Oct 1979 | Dec 1979 | 12 | 11.1% | +6.1% | +5823.4% |
| Mar 1980 | Jul 1980 | 21 | 19.6% | +6.4% | +5660.4% |
| Aug 1980 | Sep 1980 | 3 | 2.3% | +10.8% | +5823.4% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 3 | 4.7% | +0.9% | +5768.0% |
| Aug 1981 | Nov 1982 | 61 | 35.2% | -20.6% | +5768.0% |
| Nov 1982 | Feb 1983 | 12 | 10.8% | +27.7% | +5795.6% |
| Feb 1983 | Mar 1983 | 3 | 3.2% | +11.1% | +5966.5% |
| Apr 1983 | Apr 1983 | 1 | 0.8% | +13.7% | +5851.5% |
| Mar 1984 | Mar 1984 | 3 | 6.7% | +59.3% | +5879.8% |
| May 1984 | Jun 1984 | 5 | 6.1% | +97.3% | +5795.6% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 0.1% | +105.0% | +5432.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 22 | 18.3% | +26.0% | +3226.4% |
| Apr 1988 | Apr 1988 | 1 | 0.4% | +19.1% | +2749.1% |
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 4 | 6.7% | +13.1% | +2720.0% |
| Jun 1988 | Sep 1988 | 14 | 8.5% | +18.6% | +2748.6% |
| Oct 1988 | Jan 1989 | 14 | 9.0% | +4.4% | +2662.0% |
| Oct 1989 | Nov 1990 | 59 | 19.4% | -11.0% | +2559.5% |
| Jan 2000 | Oct 2003 | 195 | 45.8% | -17.5% | +314.0% |
| Jul 2008 | Jan 2012 | 184 | 91.1% | -74.8% | +144.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 7 | 7.0% | +39.9% | +182.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 6.1% | -0.5% | +111.7% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 8.0% | -50.6% | +96.1% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 13.5% | -31.8% | +95.9% |
| Sep 2019 | Feb 2021 | 72 | 56.1% | -28.2% | +95.5% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 2 | 3.0% | N/A | +32.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 12 | 18.7% | N/A | +30.5% |
| Average | 24 | — | +7.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02