TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) closed at $322.86 as of 2026-06-19, trading 83.1% above its 200-week moving average of $176.33. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 71.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 85, TXN is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2772 weeks of data, TXN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TXN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.5%.
With a market cap of $293.8 billion, TXN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.4%. Return on equity stands at 32.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 17.5x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TXN would have grown to $16788, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TXN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TXN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TXN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying TXN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.9% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +5.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.0% vs +15.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TXN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TXN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TXN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $182.53 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $205.25 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $234.44 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $273.30 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $327.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TXN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TXN has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +18.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1973 | Jul 1973 | 2 | 4.6% | +10.3% | +44326.6% |
| Apr 1974 | Apr 1974 | 1 | 1.2% | +1.9% | +40192.3% |
| Jun 1974 | Mar 1975 | 37 | 36.0% | +18.8% | +41012.4% |
| Sep 1975 | Sep 1975 | 1 | 5.0% | +30.0% | +43071.0% |
| Dec 1976 | Jun 1979 | 130 | 30.3% | -24.6% | +37755.6% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 3 | 4.0% | +19.2% | +41023.4% |
| Dec 1979 | Jan 1980 | 1 | 1.2% | +47.1% | +40572.4% |
| Mar 1980 | Apr 1980 | 5 | 4.7% | +39.8% | +40813.4% |
| May 1980 | May 1980 | 1 | 1.3% | +36.8% | +41485.4% |
| Aug 1981 | Jul 1982 | 47 | 18.0% | +0.9% | +38114.1% |
| Jul 1982 | Aug 1982 | 5 | 10.3% | +25.2% | +36822.0% |
| Oct 1983 | Oct 1983 | 1 | 3.1% | +23.7% | +31415.8% |
| Feb 1985 | Feb 1986 | 49 | 21.4% | +16.9% | +28169.1% |
| Jun 1986 | Aug 1986 | 9 | 8.7% | +57.0% | +25666.3% |
| Sep 1986 | Nov 1986 | 11 | 7.4% | +97.5% | +26889.8% |
| Oct 1987 | Oct 1987 | 1 | 2.9% | -0.3% | +24114.8% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 3 | 4.4% | -10.6% | +24486.2% |
| May 1988 | May 1988 | 2 | 2.0% | +3.5% | +22910.3% |
| Jul 1988 | May 1989 | 43 | 18.2% | -9.8% | +23026.7% |
| Jun 1989 | Mar 1991 | 91 | 43.7% | -7.2% | +22513.3% |
| Mar 1991 | Apr 1991 | 2 | 7.8% | -6.6% | +25094.6% |
| Apr 1991 | Feb 1992 | 41 | 27.0% | -9.8% | +24171.8% |
| Mar 1992 | May 1992 | 9 | 7.5% | +72.3% | +26665.3% |
| Jun 1992 | Jun 1992 | 2 | 0.7% | +103.6% | +26621.9% |
| Feb 2001 | Apr 2001 | 7 | 17.2% | -1.9% | +1664.5% |
| May 2001 | Feb 2005 | 193 | 63.3% | -16.1% | +1452.3% |
| Apr 2005 | Apr 2005 | 2 | 7.0% | +44.1% | +2202.9% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 3 | 3.6% | -41.4% | +1722.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Apr 2010 | 95 | 50.9% | -24.6% | +1642.8% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 19 | 9.8% | +44.8% | +1884.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 3 | 1.4% | +23.0% | +1837.5% |
| Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | 8 | 8.7% | +38.5% | +129.1% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 1.0% | -4.4% | +115.5% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 12.7% | +32.8% | +121.1% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 4 | 4.6% | N/A | +104.1% |
| Average | 24 | — | +18.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is currently 83.1% above its 200-week moving average of $176.33. It would need to fall to $176.33 to cross below the line.
What is TXN's 200-week moving average price?
Texas Instruments Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $176.33 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TXN drops below its 200-week moving average?
TXN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is TXN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TXN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 85 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 0.4%. Return on equity is 32.3%. Price-to-book is 17.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TXN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in TXN would have grown to $16788, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 16.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TXN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19