TWO
Two Harbors Investment Corp. Financial Services - Mortgage REIT Investor Relations →
Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO) closed at $12.32 as of 2026-06-19, trading 24.6% above its 200-week moving average of $9.89. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 24.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 89, TWO is in overbought territory.
Trading activity has gone quiet — just 0.5x of its usual 14-week average. But the buying that is happening outweighs the selling (1.71 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When volume dries up but buyers are still showing up more than sellers, it can mean the worst of the selling is over and the stock is quietly building a floor.
Over the past 820 weeks of data, TWO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 64 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TWO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.9%.
With a market cap of $1294 million, TWO is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -17.7%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 21.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 15.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TWO would have grown to $153, compared to $832 for the S&P 500. TWO has returned 2.7% annualized vs 14.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TWO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TWO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying TWO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +70.8% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +22.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +87.3% vs +48.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TWO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. TWO currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TWO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TWO has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +5.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 2 | 1.0% | +13.6% | -17.0% |
| Nov 2015 | May 2016 | 22 | 11.7% | +15.3% | -17.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Feb 2025 | 256 | 79.5% | -16.1% | -31.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Dec 2025 | 37 | 13.6% | +10.7% | +26.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2 | 11.9% | N/A | +37.2% |
| Average | 64 | — | +5.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TWO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO) is currently 24.6% above its 200-week moving average of $9.89. It would need to fall to $9.89 to cross below the line.
What is TWO's 200-week moving average price?
Two Harbors Investment Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $9.89 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TWO drops below its 200-week moving average?
TWO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 64 weeks on average.
Is TWO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TWO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 89 (overbought). Return on equity is -17.7%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TWO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.8 years, $100 invested in TWO would have grown to $153, compared to $832 for the S&P 500. That's 2.7% annualized vs 14.4% for the index. TWO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TWO pay a dividend?
Yes. Two Harbors Investment Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 1150.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19