TW
Tradeweb Markets Inc. Financial Services - Electronic Trading Investor Relations →
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) closed at $103.97 as of 2026-09-18, trading 0.6% below its 200-week moving average of $104.60. This places TW in the below line zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -2.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.26 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 341 weeks of data, TW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 5 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +46.4%.
With a market cap of $22.5 billion, TW is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.5%. The stock trades at 3.3x book value.
Share count has increased 2.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TW would have grown to $235, compared to $323 for the S&P 500. TW has returned 13.9% annualized vs 19.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying TW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.5% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +25.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +90.2% vs +54.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $82.04 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $88.26 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $95.50 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $104.04 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $114.26 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.95 | $0.97 | +2.5% |
| 2026-04-29 | $1.06 | $1.08 | +1.5% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.84 | $0.87 | +3.0% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.83 | $0.87 | +4.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TW has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +46.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | 10.1% | +71.7% | +146.4% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.0% | +13.0% | +66.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Dec 2022 | 13 | 16.8% | +37.9% | +77.4% |
| Jul 2023 | Jul 2023 | 1 | 2.3% | +63.0% | +60.6% |
| May 2026 | Aug 2026 | 11 | 8.3% | N/A | +4.0% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 2.8% | Ongoing | +2.5% |
| Average | 5 | — | +46.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TW below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) is trading 0.6% below its 200-week moving average of $104.60. The current price is $103.97.
What is TW's 200-week moving average price?
Tradeweb Markets Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $104.60 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TW drops below its 200-week moving average?
TW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +46.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 5 weeks on average.
Is TW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TW as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 53. Return on equity is 14.5%. Price-to-book is 3.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.6 years, $100 invested in TW would have grown to $235, compared to $323 for the S&P 500. That's 13.9% annualized vs 19.5% for the index. TW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TW pay a dividend?
Yes. Tradeweb Markets Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 54.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18