TW
Tradeweb Markets Inc. Financial Services - Electronic Trading Investor Relations →
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) closed at $100.50 as of 2026-07-31, trading 2.4% below its 200-week moving average of $102.97. This places TW in the below line zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -2.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 334 weeks of data, TW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 6 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +46.4%.
Return on equity stands at 14.5%. The stock trades at 3.2x book value.
Share count has increased 2.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TW would have grown to $227, compared to $316 for the S&P 500. TW has returned 13.6% annualized vs 19.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying TW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.5% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +25.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +90.2% vs +54.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $92.78 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $104.17 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $118.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $138.11 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $164.97 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TW has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +46.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | 10.1% | +71.7% | +137.9% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.0% | +13.0% | +60.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Dec 2022 | 13 | 16.8% | +37.9% | +71.2% |
| Jul 2023 | Jul 2023 | 1 | 2.3% | +63.0% | +55.0% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 10+ | 8.3% | Ongoing | +0.4% |
| Average | 6 | — | +46.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TW below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) is trading 2.4% below its 200-week moving average of $102.97. The current price is $100.50.
What is TW's 200-week moving average price?
Tradeweb Markets Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $102.97 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TW drops below its 200-week moving average?
TW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +46.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 6 weeks on average.
Is TW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TW as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 36. Return on equity is 14.5%. Price-to-book is 3.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.4 years, $100 invested in TW would have grown to $227, compared to $316 for the S&P 500. That's 13.6% annualized vs 19.6% for the index. TW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TW pay a dividend?
Yes. Tradeweb Markets Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 56.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31